Oil prices rose on Monday as heightened Middle East tensions, following reciprocal attacks between Iran and Israel, fueled market concerns over a fragile ceasefire and the potential for an expanding conflict.
The international benchmark Brent crude for July delivery increased by 4.35% to $97.14 per barrel, though it retreated slightly from earlier gains. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for August delivery climbed 4.25% to $94.39 per barrel.
The Israeli Defense Force stated on platform X that its air force struck military targets in western and central Iran on Monday. The White House confirmed to media outlets that President Donald Trump had been briefed following the first Iranian missile strike on Israeli targets since the ceasefire took effect. Trump told Fox News on Sunday that the missile attack "certainly does not help negotiations." An Iranian official involved in US-Iran talks informed MS NOW that "reaching a deal with President Trump is no longer feasible at this stage."
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf posted on X that a US "naval blockade and violation of agreements concerning Lebanon" would constitute a breach of the ceasefire. He added that, due to the current US blockade and military actions in Lebanon, American and Israeli bases and assets in the region have now become "legitimate targets."
Simultaneously, according to an OPEC statement, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to increase its production target by 188,000 barrels per day starting in July. This marks the fourth approved oil production quota increase since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The size of this increase matches that of June, which was itself a reduction from the 206,000 barrels per day monthly increases seen in May and April due to the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from the organization.
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