Abstract
Miami International Holdings, Inc. will release its quarterly results on February 25, 2026 Post Market, and the latest projections point to revenue of $121.70 million and adjusted EPS of $0.41, with this preview assessing expected top-line normalization after a strong prior period and the implications of recent strategic actions for forward guidance.Market Forecast
Market expectations for Miami International Holdings, Inc. center on revenue of $121.70 million and adjusted EPS of $0.41 for the upcoming print, implying a sequential revenue decrease of 64.18% versus the prior quarter’s $339.78 million; specific forecasts for gross margin, net profit, or net margin were not provided. On the company’s core revenue drivers, trading and clearing fees should remain the largest contributor, while guidance and commentary will be assessed against early-quarter operating indicators and recent corporate developments. The most promising near-term growth lane is the company’s recurring, non-transactional revenue stream from access and data, which totaled $37.83 million last quarter and offers a steadier trajectory through customer expansions and new products.Last Quarter Review
Miami International Holdings, Inc. delivered last quarter revenue of $339.78 million, a gross profit margin of 32.22%, a GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of $102.00 million with a net profit margin of -30.04%, and adjusted EPS of $0.42. A key highlight was the divergence between GAAP profitability and adjusted earnings, indicating the presence of non-operating or non-recurring items despite underlying earnings per share remaining positive on an adjusted basis. By segment, trading and clearing fees contributed $292.81 million, access fees reached $27.10 million, market data fees were $10.73 million, and other revenue accounted for $9.14 million, underscoring the predominance of transaction-linked revenue in the overall mix.Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Trading and clearing fees
Trading and clearing fees remain the core of Miami International Holdings, Inc.’s revenue model and will be the critical determinant of how actuals compare with the $121.70 million top-line estimate for the quarter being reported on February 25, 2026. The prior quarter’s result showed $292.81 million in trading and clearing fees, a level that was consistent with elevated activity and pricing dynamics, and well above a typical mid-cycle run rate. The forecasted sequencing down to the $121.70 million total revenue estimate points to a normalization from that unusually strong period, which may reflect seasonal factors, volume mix, and rebate timing that can compress headline revenue even when unit-level activity remains robust.Operationally, the company’s volumes and mix will be watched closely for signs of sustainability following that strong backdrop. While the to-be-reported quarter does not include January performance, it is noteworthy that the company disclosed materially higher January activity metrics compared with December, with average daily volumes rising month over month and futures activity also improving. Those early-quarter signs help frame the post-print narrative, particularly for management commentary on quarter-to-date trends and how client engagement, product breadth, and fee realization are tracking after the period under review.
On profitability, management’s discussion around variable incentives, liquidity programs, and cost pass-throughs is likely to be central to how margins look against the sequential revenue decline. Last quarter’s gross margin of 32.22% and GAAP net margin of -30.04% indicate that non-operating items, accounting adjustments, or investments affected the bottom line. Investors will look for reconciliation between GAAP and adjusted results to understand core run-rate economics. Should fee capture and incentives normalize in line with revenue, EBIT of $36.97 million and adjusted EPS of $0.41 would suggest resilience in underlying earnings power even as top-line recedes from an exceptional prior period.
Recurring access and market data revenue
Access fees and market data fees form a recurring, non-transactional layer that enhances visibility within Miami International Holdings, Inc.’s revenue base. Last quarter, access fees were $27.10 million and market data fees were $10.73 million, combining to $37.83 million. This component is less directly exposed to daily fluctuations in transaction volumes and can benefit from contractual expansions, increased client connectivity, enhanced service levels, and new data products.Strategically, this stream is well placed to contribute incremental dollars as clients broaden their connectivity and as the company enhances entitlements, improves packaging, and adds new analytical feeds. Within the upcoming results, investors will parse any updates on client onboarding and incremental take-up, because such developments can lift recurring revenue irrespective of trading-day volatility. This dynamic helps provide a degree of ballast to revenue and earnings as the company navigates alternating periods of elevated and subdued transaction activity.
In the medium term, commentary on new product launches, fee schedule refinements, and cross-sell momentum between connectivity and data could be as important as the headline revenue figure. Investors will be looking for indications that the recurring layer can compound through pricing, breadth of offerings, and deeper client penetration. If the company demonstrates steady growth in these categories despite the projected quarter’s sequential revenue decline, the quality of revenue should be viewed favorably as it implies progress toward a more balanced profile.
Factors most likely to move the stock around this report
The first swing factor is the magnitude of deviation from the revenue and EPS estimates of $121.70 million and $0.41. Given the outsized prior quarter, even a modest variance in fee capture, volume mix, or rebate accruals could translate into a meaningful percentage variance versus consensus. Whether adjusted EPS remains near the guided range, despite revenue normalization, will be an important signal for earnings resilience and should influence the share reaction.A second, equally important factor is forward-looking commentary following the announced sale on January 21, 2026 of a majority stake in the company’s derivatives exchange entity to a joint venture. Because this transaction closed after the period being reported, it should not affect the quarter’s GAAP figures; however, investors will pay close attention to how management frames the go-forward revenue and earnings implications, including any consolidation changes, profit-sharing mechanics, and expected capital redeployment. Clarity on how retained economics will be recognized and how the partnership could expand volumes or product offerings can shape expectations for the next few quarters.
The third factor is operating leverage and expense cadence against a smaller revenue base this quarter. EBIT is modeled at $36.97 million versus $39.63 million last quarter despite the top-line step down, suggesting potential offset from lower incentives or tighter cost management. Details on core operating expenses, technology investments, and any non-recurring charges will be essential to reconcile GAAP net income with adjusted EPS, especially given last quarter’s negative GAAP net margin against positive adjusted EPS. If management provides a clean bridge between adjusted and GAAP metrics and outlines an expense path consistent with mid-cycle revenue, the stock may find support even if top-line normalizes more than anticipated.
Analyst Opinions
The balance of recent institutional commentary has been decisively positive for Miami International Holdings, Inc., with a clear majority expressed through Buy recommendations and no discernible bearish calls in the past several weeks. William Blair maintained a Buy rating, highlighting confidence in the company’s financial performance and strategic initiatives. Morgan Stanley also reiterated a Buy stance, emphasizing the opportunity set as the company executes on business development and streamlines its portfolio. Piper Sandler maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $39.00, underscoring a favorable risk-reward skew as revenue rebalances and recurring streams scale.This concentration of bullish opinions reflects an institutional view that the upcoming report’s projected revenue normalization does not materially impair the company’s earnings trajectory. Analysts appear to be looking past the step-down from $339.78 million in the prior quarter to the $121.70 million estimate, focusing instead on the durability of adjusted earnings and on the company’s ability to manage expenses and incentives to preserve EBIT, which is forecast at $36.97 million. In this framing, adjusted EPS of $0.41 is seen as a credible anchor, especially if management demonstrates discipline around variable payouts and provides clarity on where GAAP and adjusted figures will converge post any non-operating noise.
Another component supporting the bullish tilt is the prospect of stronger forward signals following early-quarter operating updates. The company recently reported higher activity in January compared with December across both options and futures contracts. While the upcoming print will not include those figures, institutions may interpret the improvement as a constructive setup for the quarter ahead, potentially reinforcing management’s outlook and reducing downside risk to revenue from transaction-sensitive line items. If this momentum is supported by an uptick in client connectivity and additional data subscriptions, it would enhance the visibility of the access and data categories that contributed $37.83 million last quarter.
Finally, the announced sale of a majority stake in the derivatives exchange platform to a joint venture has been received as a strategic move that could sharpen the company’s operating focus and unlock value. Bullish institutions are likely to probe how retained interests, revenue-sharing terms, and potential volume uplift within the partnership could affect the consolidated earnings base. A clear articulation from management on capital allocation priorities, whether toward technology investment, product development, or balance sheet flexibility, would complement this narrative and may serve as a positive catalyst for the stock. On balance, the predominant institutional stance is bullish, based on expectations that the company can manage a multi-quarter rebalancing of revenue while defending adjusted profitability and positioning for incremental gains from recurring streams and strategic partnerships.
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