On September 25, on the news front, the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals continued to ferment, becoming the core driving force behind gold's weakness. After the Fed restarted rate hikes in September, multiple officials intensively released tightening signals, and the market's probability expectation for an October rate hike has risen to approximately 70%, with the December rate hike probability reaching 95%. Rate hike expectations directly push up the opportunity cost of holding gold, and the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets has noticeably declined.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar index maintained an extremely strong posture, continuing to be supported by high yields and inflation concerns after five consecutive trading days of gains, further suppressing dollar-denominated gold. On the technical side, the 1-hour Bollinger Bands are approaching a squeeze, and the short-term fluctuation range is converging; however, the 4-hour cycle's various moving average indicators and Bollinger Bands are all diverging downward, and the medium-term structure remains bearish.
On the upside, resistance focuses on the pressure range formed by the morning rebound high of 4295 and yesterday's rebound high of 4303. An upward breakout would focus on the 4325-4335 range resistance; on the downside, support focuses on the support range formed by the early morning pullback low of 4252 and yesterday's low of 4244. A downward breakout would directly target the 4200 integer mark. Intraday reference can be made to the 4244-4295 range for selling high and buying low, adjusting the approach after a breakout.
This week, the U.S. dollar index has accumulated a gain of approximately 1%, recording gains for the second consecutive week, and the rally marks the first "back-to-back" weekly streak in more than three months. It is predicted that gold still has room to fall, and in terms of operations, reference last week's low of 4235 as the bull-bear dividing line to determine direction.
Gold Reference Strategy: Real-time current quote at 4276 level. 1. Short in the 4292-4298 rebound zone, stop loss at 4305, target 4266-4244, hold if broken below; 2. Long in the 4252-4245 pullback zone, stop loss at 4240, target 4272-4295, hold if broken above.
On the news front, after the Federal Reserve restarted rate hikes for the first time in three years, its hawkish stance continued to ferment. The U.S. dollar index held above 101 and recorded five consecutive gains. The strong dollar has clearly suppressed dollar-denominated crude oil. On the supply side, EIA data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.969 million barrels last week, far exceeding the market expectation of a decrease of 641,000 barrels. The unexpected inventory buildup further intensified demand-side concerns.
Although economic resilience provides support for the dollar, it has also increased market divergence on the crude oil demand outlook, and the bull-bear tug-of-war is becoming more intense. On the technical side, crude oil's 4-hour Bollinger upper band resistance is at 99.1, the 4-hour MA60 moving average is under pressure at 99.6, and the 4-hour SAR parabolic indicator has turned to the early morning rebound high of 100.3. These three points constitute today's three key upside resistance nodes, with rebound space successively limited.
On the downside, support first looks at the support range formed by the 1-hour lower band at 95.2 and the daily MA5 moving average at 94.5. If broken downward, focus on this week's low of 92.4. This week, crude oil K-lines show flat-top solid bearish candles controlling the market, with the weekly K-line recording two consecutive bearish candles. As time approaches the end of the month, protecting profits and shipping out would be the rational choice.
Today's operational recommendation is to primarily sell on rebounds, supplemented by buying on dips, strictly set stop losses, and adjust the approach after a breakout.
Crude Oil Reference Strategy: Real-time current quote at 96.9 level. 1. Short at 99.1 on rebound, add to short position at 99.9, stop loss at 100.6, target 97.5-95.2-92.5; 2. Long in the 95.1-94.5 pullback zone, stop loss at 94, target 96.8-98.5; 3. Long in the 92.6-92.1 zone, stop loss at 91.5, target 95.1-97.5, hold if broken above.
Comments