Weekly Review: Gold Fills Early-Year Surge Gap, Bearish Outlook Prevails Pending Stabilization

Deep News01-31 08:50

To capture major market moves, one must follow the trend, reduce position sizes, and widen stops and targets—all are indispensable. This column is a serial analysis of gold trends, with the team long-focused on guiding gold trading, offering clear logic and precise entry points. Welcome to exchange ideas.

Gold started the year strong from 4310, boosted by safe-haven demand from geopolitical crises, and later accelerated its breakthrough due to tariff war stimuli. Early this week, it continued its momentum, surging to 5596 after the Fed's interest rate decision. On Thursday, it faced secondary pressure, forming a short-term double top and turning into a sell-off. Friday saw a one-way decline, with the analysis emphasizing that there was still room to fall towards the weekly chart support at 4700. In early morning trading, it actually dropped to 4686, closing down 9%.

The daily chart recorded a large bearish candlestick with a bearish K-line formation pattern. Given the uncertainty in US-Iran tensions, it is expected that prices will rise again after confirming support, but are unlikely to break 5596. At Monday's market open, watch for any gap; short-term resistance lies at 4940-4980, with stronger resistance at the 38.2%-50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels of the 5596-4686 move, at 5024-5134. Short-term support is at 4850-4820, with stronger support at 4790; a break below targets 4686.

In terms of trading, we were continuously long early in the week and switched to consecutive shorts from 5528-5110-5070-5130-5100 towards the week's end, completing a full logical sequence. For early next week, the plan is to primarily sell below 5134, with specific entries provided in real-time.

Strategy 1: Sell near 5020, stop-loss above 5050, target 4700. Strategy 2: Buy near 4700, stop-loss below 4670, target 5000.

Focused, objective, prudent, and efficient, the author holds qualifications for gold/securities/futures/fund practice, understands market dynamics thoroughly, has a decade of experience specializing in gold guidance, excels in trend analysis with a steady style, and possesses rich experience in position management and risk control. Welcome to exchange ideas.

By Yun Jie - Chief Analyst

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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