David Kelly of Morgan Asset Management anticipates that the latest inflation figures are unlikely to prompt Federal Reserve policymakers to take any action beyond keeping interest rates unchanged at their meeting next week.
The US Consumer Price Index for May recorded its largest increase in over three years, driven by higher energy prices due to the Iran conflict, outpacing wage growth for American workers. However, the core inflation measure, which excludes food and energy, rose less than expected. Kelly, the chief global strategist at Morgan Asset Management, stated that while the Fed would feel "somewhat uncomfortable" with this data, it might indicate that inflation has already reached its peak.
"Essentially, we will see a unanimous 12-vote decision to hold steady," Kelly said on the program Surveillance on Wednesday. "Inflation is higher than they would like to see. But I believe the peak of inflation for this cycle may have occurred in that month, which was May."
Kelly pointed to the decline in US gasoline prices—down 9% from the peak on May 20—as a sign that cost pressures are beginning to ease.
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