Senior meat market analyst Ma Liyuan from Sublime China Information Co.,Ltd.
【Introduction】In the first half of September 2025, affected by EU anti-dumping events, prices of imported ribs, pig heads, and pig feet all increased, with imported rib prices showing significant gains and daily increases reaching up to 4,000 yuan per ton at peak levels. However, domestic fresh and frozen pork prices were not lifted by this trend, with white strip pork prices continuously hitting new annual lows. Looking ahead, domestic fresh pork prices are expected to have potential for modest increases from low levels in Q4, but imported product price advantages may weaken, possibly showing a gradual decline trend.
**Price Divergence Between Imported and Domestic Pork Products in First Half of September 2025**
On September 5, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement preliminarily ruling that imported related pork and pork by-products originating from the EU were being dumped in China, deciding to implement temporary anti-dumping measures in the form of security deposits. Under the influence of this news, imported ribs, pig heads, and pig feet experienced varying degrees of increases on September 8-9. Among these, EU-origin ribs are relatively popular in the domestic market with high recognition from restaurants and other groups, leading downstream customers to actively purchase while importers raised prices accordingly, supporting rapid price increases. According to Sublime China Information statistics, the average price of imported ribs in early September rose from 32,050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 35,650 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 3,500 yuan/ton. EU-origin ribs saw daily increases of up to 4,000 yuan/ton, with EU rib prices rising to 37,000-38,000 yuan/ton, with some periods showing quoted prices without actual transactions. Additionally, imported pig heads and pig feet also saw price increases driven by this trend, with imported pig heads (with ears, tongues removed) average transaction prices rising from 11,100 yuan/ton to 11,450 yuan/ton, and imported long-cut pig feet average transaction prices rising from 22,650 yuan/ton to 24,400 yuan/ton. In mid-month, downstream customer purchasing enthusiasm weakened, leading to slight price corrections.
Meanwhile, domestic pork supply remained abundant. After the back-to-school season stocking and Zhongyuan Festival preparation purchases concluded, terminal demand returned to weak conditions. The fresh pork market faced oversupply, with prices continuously hitting new annual lows. According to Sublime China Information statistics, as of September 16, 2025, the average transaction price for domestic lean-type white strip pork with back fat thickness of 2.5-3.5cm was 16.82 yuan/kg, breaking below the "seventeen yuan" threshold for the first time this year, down 5.37% from the beginning of the month and 33.29% compared to the same period last year. With narrowing fresh-frozen price differentials and insufficient market expectations for future price increases, downstream dealers and food manufacturers showed weak intentions to purchase domestic frozen products. Combined with some slaughterhouses' intentions to clear old-dated frozen inventory at low prices, domestic frozen pork prices did not follow the upward trend of imported products. According to Sublime China Information statistics, as of September 16, 2025, the average transaction price for domestic frozen Grade 2 meat was 19.13 yuan/kg, and domestic frozen Grade 4 meat was 19.34 yuan/kg, with virtually no adjustment in domestic frozen pork prices in the first half of September.
**Q4 Domestic Pork Prices May See Modest Low-Level Increases, Imported Pork Prices May Decline Gradually**
In the short term, domestic pork supply remains abundant in the second half of September, with prices at relatively low levels. Boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays at month-end, terminal demand may improve, potentially leading to low-level rebounds in white strip pork prices, though the magnitude will be very limited. September average prices may decline slightly month-over-month, with decreases within 2%. At this time, domestic frozen pork sales are unlikely to show significant improvement, with slaughterhouses more likely to maintain stable prices for volume sales, potentially keeping prices stable by month-end. Given the relatively low domestic pork prices, without other news influences, prices may mainly show gradual declines.
In the long term, Q4 domestic fresh pork prices are expected to have potential for modest low-level increases. From the analysis, based on pig growth cycle calculations, domestic suitable-weight pig sources will increase in Q4 2025, coinciding with the peak pork consumption season, placing the fresh pork market in a state of dual supply and demand increases. However, upstream breeding operations actively reduced weights for early slaughter in Q3, leading to fewer large pig supplies in Q4. Upstream breeding operations may hold back and increase weights, maintaining difficulties for slaughterhouses in low-price procurement, potentially reducing white strip pork supply below expectations. Overall, Sublime China Information expects domestic fresh pork prices in Q4 2025 to see modest low-level increases, though with very limited magnitude, with cumulative increases possibly within 5% and high points unlikely to break through the "eighteen yuan" threshold. Due to relatively small fresh pork price increases, support for domestic frozen pork will be limited. With slaughterhouses actively reducing inventory in Q4, domestic frozen pork prices are expected to show little fluctuation in most cases.
Q4 imported pork prices may mainly show gradual declines. Analysis shows that 2025 pork and by-product import volumes have been relatively abundant. General Administration of Customs data shows that January-July 2025 pork import volume was 626,400 tons, up 4.11% year-over-year; pork by-product import volume was 719,200 tons, up 2.85% year-over-year. With generally poor sales of imported products throughout the year, current port inventory levels for pork are relatively high. According to Sublime China Information research, importers mostly hold bearish expectations for the future market, potentially implementing price-reduction sales strategies in Q4. Overall, Sublime China Information expects imported pork prices in Q4 2025 to maintain a gradual decline trend, with cumulative decreases possibly ranging from 5%-10%.
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