Wedbush Securities highlights in its latest analysis that demand for NVIDIA GPUs remains robust, with its Grace Blackwell systems, including the GB300 and B300, becoming increasingly scarce. Analysts note they cannot recall a time in a product lifecycle when supply constraints have been this pronounced.
The report states that multiple clients have indicated lead times for Blackwell systems are extending, with availability becoming more challenging. This tight supply stems from two primary factors: first, the global demand for AI infrastructure is accelerating at a pace far exceeding expectations; second, the supply chain for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging required for these systems continues to be a bottleneck.
It is noteworthy that, despite market concerns that events like those involving DeepSeek might dampen AI investment enthusiasm, Wedbush's supply chain checks indicate no enterprise clients have slowed or altered their AI deployment plans due to such developments. One analyst aptly observed that no customer wants to lose their place in the queue.
Current Market Dynamics
The current market landscape exhibits a distinct two-track characteristic. On one hand, cutting-edge Blackwell B200 and B300 chips are being prioritized for allocation to hyperscale customers like Microsoft and Google for frontier model training. On the other hand, demand for the previous-generation H200 chips is experiencing a second wave, stimulated by new export policies.
Long-Term Projections
Research firm TrendForce projects that by 2026, Blackwell solutions will constitute 71% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments, further solidifying its dominant market position. Concurrently, while NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin architecture has been sampled to select top-tier partners, its mass production faces challenges including HBM4 certification and power management. It is anticipated to gradually take over only in the second half of 2026.
Wedbush maintains a positive outlook for NVIDIA, viewing the current wave of AI infrastructure investment as still in its early stages. The firm expects this strong demand trend to persist well beyond 2026.
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