Some economic indicators for April released by Chinese authorities on the 18th showed a deceleration in growth. Analysis suggests this monthly fluctuation is normal and does not alter the overall steady and progressive development of the Chinese economy. Reviewing April's economic report card, while year-on-year growth rates for indicators like industrial production and retail sales of goods were lower than the previous month, the broader picture of moving towards new and improved structures remains. Looking at cumulative indicators, macro indicators, and certain structural metrics, the primary tone of "stability" in China's economy remains unchanged.
For the first four months of the year, China's value-added industrial output for major enterprises and the service industry production index increased by 5.6% and 4.9% year-on-year, respectively, while total goods imports and exports grew by 14.9%, all demonstrating solid performance. By the end of April, foreign exchange reserves exceeded $3.4 trillion, energy supply increased steadily, and development security was well safeguarded. Livelihood indicators such as employment and prices remained generally stable, reflecting the inherent logic of economic steadiness. The nationwide urban surveyed unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in April, with the rate for the 30-59 age group dropping to 4.2%. The national Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a moderate year-on-year increase of 1.2% for the month, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 1.2%, indicating overall stability.
More importantly, the cultivation and growth of new drivers and advantages are creating space for "progress" following "stability" in this super-large economy. For instance, equipment manufacturing has been the most outstanding performer in China's manufacturing sector for several consecutive years, contributing over half of the growth in industrial output for major enterprises in the first four months of this year. Furthermore, industries such as the digital economy and artificial intelligence exhibit strong spillover and driving effects. Beyond directly stimulating investment in sectors like electronics and areas like computing power construction and servers, they also drive coordinated growth in upstream industries within the supply chain, such as chemicals and power, which provide raw materials and basic energy security.
Similar trends are evident in consumption and investment. The consumer market is expanding from goods to services and upgrading from meeting basic needs to pursuing quality experiences. Emerging fields like high-end equipment, green energy, and smart manufacturing continue to see investment and production expansion. Data shows that from January to April, service retail sales in China accelerated to a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, with upgraded goods like communication equipment and cosmetics maintaining rapid growth. During the same period, investment in areas with distinct "new growth driver" characteristics performed strongly, such as integrated circuit manufacturing and information services, which grew by 11.6% and 18.1% year-on-year, respectively. A spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics stated that these deep-seated changes are reshaping China's development momentum, continuously enhancing the resilience and long-term potential of high-quality development.
Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, the combined effects of macro policies will continue to play a role in safeguarding the stable operation of the Chinese economy. The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank noted that recent State Council executive meetings emphasized "making full and effective use of macro policies, insisting on front-loading efforts, and continuously improving implementation effectiveness." The National Development and Reform Commission stated it would strive to basically complete the allocation of central budget investment and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds by the end of June. The economist analyzed that current macro policies are characterized by "implementation following policy direction," with aggregate policies maintaining continuity, fiscal funds and key projects accelerating, monetary policy focusing on transmission and structural support, and consumption and service sector policies continuously providing reinforcement.
The statistics bureau spokesperson said that overall, China's macro policy toolkit is abundant, with ample means and space for cross-cycle and counter-cyclical adjustments. The precision and effectiveness of policy implementation are continually improving, providing the conditions and capabilities to address risks and challenges.
Comments