China's import and export data for March revealed a sharply divergent trend: energy shocks triggered by the Iran war impacted crude oil and natural gas imports, while exports of green energy products, including new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, demonstrated significant counter-trend growth in the first quarter against the backdrop of global fossil fuel supply disruptions.
Data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 14 showed that, denominated in US dollars, China's exports in March increased by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly five months. In contrast, imports surged by 27.8% year-on-year, representing the best performance since November 2021.
The global energy shock caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was the core disruptive factor for this month's trade data. Imports of crude oil and natural gas both declined in March, while exports of green energy products grew against the trend. Overseas sales of electric and hybrid vehicles doubled in March, reaching a record high, which partially offset the drag from the energy shock. Looking at first-quarter data, exports of green energy products showed robust growth, with significant increases in shipments of electric vehicles and lithium batteries.
Notably, exports of high-tech products also performed strongly in March. The volume of integrated circuit exports rose by 13% year-on-year, while the export value surged by 84.92%, accelerating from the 72.6% growth rate seen in the first two months of the year.
**Crude Oil and Natural Gas Imports Under Pressure in March** The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz impacted energy imports in March. Data indicated that crude oil import volume fell by 2.8% year-on-year to 49.982 million tonnes.
Emma Li, an analyst at vessel-tracking firm Vortexa, stated that China's seaborne crude oil imports in March were largely flat year-on-year, maintaining around 10.5 million barrels per day, while inventories increased by approximately 34 million barrels during the same period. She noted that loadings for Middle Eastern cargoes were concentrated in January and February, so the supply disruption from the Strait of Hormuz had not yet substantially affected March imports.
As the impact of the Iran war gradually materializes, supply pressures are expected to intensify significantly in April. Ye Lin from Rystad Energy suggested that China's crude oil imports in April could be about 2 million barrels per day lower than normal import demand, creating a substantial gap.
Natural gas import volume decreased by approximately 11% year-on-year to 8.183 million tonnes, the lowest level since October 2022. This was primarily due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz blocking shipments from the Persian Gulf, causing cumulative imports for the year to be about 4% lower than the same period in 2025.
The decline in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports was more pronounced. According to ship-tracking data, seaborne LNG arrivals in March plummeted by 22% year-on-year to 3.74 million tonnes.
**Counter-Trend Growth in Green Energy Exports** Against the backdrop of global fossil fuel supply disruptions, China's exports of green energy products demonstrated clear counter-trend growth momentum in the first quarter.
Data showed that electric vehicle exports surged by 77.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, while lithium battery exports increased by 50.4%, and exports of wind turbines and components grew by 45.2%.
Overseas sales of electric and hybrid vehicles doubled in March, setting a new historical record. Chinese automakers surpassed Japanese brands for the first time in the Australian market and doubled their market share in the UK.
Analysts pointed out that the Iran war has driven up oil prices, which may further incentivize overseas consumers to switch to electric mobility in the short term, benefiting overseas demand for Chinese new energy vehicles, solar panels, and other green products.
Exports of high-tech products were also notable. In March, the export value of integrated circuits surged by 84.92% year-on-year. For the first quarter, the export value of integrated circuits skyrocketed by 78% year-on-year, with the overall increase for high-tech products approaching 30%.
Data also revealed that South Korea's exports to China grew by 62.4% in March, with semiconductor shipments soaring by 151.4%, underscoring the strong pull of the AI boom on China's peripheral industrial chain.
**Divergence Between Import Value and Volume Across Multiple Categories in March** Data from the General Administration of Customs indicated a trend of divergence between import value and volume across multiple categories, highlighting the price-driven nature of this import surge.
* The import value of copper ore increased by nearly 67% year-on-year, but import volume grew by only 11.5%. * The import value of unwrought copper and copper products rose by 20%, while import volume fell by 11%. * The import value of fertilizers climbed by approximately 59%, but import volume increased by only 27%. * The import value of integrated circuits grew by about 49%, while import volume rose by only 14%.
By volume, China's imports of refined oil products, integrated circuits, and soybeans in March were 3.638 million tonnes, 54.65 billion units, and 4.019 million tonnes, representing year-on-year increases of 19.2%, 14.35%, and 14.73%, respectively.
Imports of unwrought copper and copper products, natural gas, and crude oil fell by 10.92%, 10.65%, and 2.79% year-on-year, respectively.
By value, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates, integrated circuits, and refined oil products in March increased by 61.58%, 48.91%, and 22.64% year-on-year, respectively.
Imports of natural gas, crude oil, and steel decreased by 22.64%, 7.42%, and 0.16% year-on-year, respectively.
Detailed data released by the General Administration of Customs showed:
* China imported 4.019 million tonnes of soybeans in March; cumulative soybean imports for the year reached 16.58 million tonnes, down 3.1% year-on-year. * Crude oil imports in March were 49.982 million tonnes; cumulative crude oil imports for the year were 146.838 million tonnes, up 8.9% year-on-year. * Refined oil product imports in March were 3.638 million tonnes; cumulative imports for the year were 12.67 million tonnes, up 35.4% year-on-year. * Coal and lignite imports in March were 39.059 million tonnes; cumulative imports for the year were 116.279 million tonnes, up 1.3% year-on-year. * Natural gas imports in March were 8.183 million tonnes; cumulative imports for the year were 28.145 million tonnes, down 4% year-on-year. * Imports of iron ore and concentrates in March were 104.743 million tonnes; cumulative imports for the year were 314.762 million tonnes, up 10.5% year-on-year. * Imports of unwrought copper and copper products in March were 416,000 tonnes; cumulative imports for the year were 1.115 million tonnes, down 14.2% year-on-year. * Imports of copper ore and concentrates in March were 2.63 million tonnes; cumulative imports for the year were 7.563 million tonnes, up 6.6% year-on-year.
Comments