Hong Kong's three major stock indexes all fell on the day, with the Hang Seng Tech Index posting the weakest performance. Ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil and gas ETFs higher, while hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and recurring geopolitical uncertainties triggered a broad retreat in gold ETFs.
By the close, the Hang Seng Index dropped 1.1% to 25,652.82 points, with total turnover reaching 210.942 billion Hong Kong dollars. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.93% to 4,824.42 points. Among the largest Hong Kong ETFs by scale, the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) closed 1.06% lower at 26.14 Hong Kong dollars, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF (02828) dropped 1.04% to 87.78 Hong Kong dollars, and the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield ETF (03466) declined 0.55% to 19.81 Hong Kong dollars.
Oil and Gas ETFs Surge as Strait Negotiations Persist
By the close, the CSOP S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (513350.SH) advanced 6.82% to 1.268 yuan, the Harvest S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (159518.SZ) gained 6.06% to 1.191 yuan, and the F三星原油期 (03175) rose 6.59% to 10.27 Hong Kong dollars. Negotiations between the US and Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked, leading to rising geopolitical risk premiums. Brent crude oil has climbed above 88 US dollars per barrel. On the supply side, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983, further intensifying market concerns about tightening supply. Ping An Securities believes that while the US and Iran have resumed talks, easing some geopolitical risks, the tug-of-war over control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's denuclearization continues. Currently, oil tanker traffic through the Strait remains well below pre-conflict levels. Coupled with the Northern Hemisphere still being in the peak travel season, resilient demand for gasoline and jet fuel, and US crude oil inventories at historical lows, Brent crude prices are expected to find strong support in the short term.
Gold ETFs Retreat Broadly Amid Hawkish Fed Comments and Geopolitical Uncertainty
By the close, the Gold Equity ETF (517520.SH) fell 5.94% to 2.044 yuan, the Gold Equity ETF (517400.SH) dropped 5.68% to 1.612 yuan, and the Gold Equity ETF (159321.SZ) declined 5.53% to 1.573 yuan. On August 10, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that inflation has not yet returned to target levels, and the Federal Reserve may need to implement multiple interest rate hikes. Industry analysts note that three Fed officials still support rate hikes, indicating clear internal divisions. Market attention is now focused on the upcoming US CPI and PPI data releases on Wednesday and Thursday, which will determine whether gold prices can extend their rally to 4,500 US dollars or face a correction. Oriental Securities points out that the US dollar index and non-farm payroll data have both softened. The bottom for gold prices has likely been seen, and the key inflection point has shifted to the inflation data. In the Middle East, short-term de-escalation signals have been widely priced in by the market. Even if the situation fluctuates again in the short term, the most pessimistic period for rate hike fears has passed. The firm maintains its view that gold prices will experience a volatile recovery in August.
Institutional Views
CICC believes that the extreme K-shaped divergence driven by AI in the first half of 2026 has its counterpart in the weakness of Hong Kong stocks and the consumer sector. Due to its composition, the broad-based Hang Seng Index can essentially be viewed as a 'leveraged consumer proxy.' Conversely, after tech stocks began to falter in July, Hong Kong stocks and the Hang Seng Tech Index rebounded, behaving like two ends of a seesaw. CICC continues to emphasize that capital rebalancing and low valuations can only support tactical rebounds, driven by a 'risk-reward' mindset. For a sustained, broad-based rally in the medium to long term, either a '924-style' fiscal stimulus aimed at boosting consumer spending, or a 'DeepSeek-style' breakthrough by internet leaders, is still required.
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