[Management View]
GCM Grosvenor reported record assets under management (AUM) of $87 billion, a 9% increase year over year. Key metrics showed strong performance with fee-related earnings up 18%, adjusted EBITDA up 16%, and adjusted net income up 18% year over year. The fee-related earnings margin expanded to 45%. The company highlighted robust fundraising momentum, with $7.2 billion raised year-to-date and $9.5 billion over the last twelve months.
[Outlook]
Management set clear strategic goals, including doubling 2023 fee-related earnings to over $280 million by 2028 and targeting adjusted net income per share above $1.20 by 2028. They emphasized a disciplined approach to expense management and capital return, including a raised quarterly dividend and ongoing share buybacks.
[Financial Performance]
Year-over-year (YoY) trends showed significant growth:
- Fee-related earnings: +18%
- Adjusted EBITDA: +16%
- Adjusted net income: +18%
- Total AUM: +9%
- Fee-paying AUM: +10%
- Contracted not-yet-fee-paying AUM: +17%
Sequentially, third-quarter fee-related earnings and adjusted net income grew 13% and 16%, respectively.
[Q&A Highlights]
Question 1: On the CFO raise, are there ongoing fees for that product, or is it a one-off?
Answer: The CFO will generate recurring management fees and potentially carry over time. The $2 million upfront fee was a one-time transaction fee, but ongoing management fees will start next quarter.
Question 2: On ARS, why isn't the positive environment reflected in net flows, and how is Q4 shaping up?
Answer: Interest and opportunities for ARS are higher, but the company maintains a conservative approach to forecasting. The fourth quarter is typically seasonally weaker, but the overall environment is improving.
Question 3: Why is Q3 seasonally strong for realizations, and what are the prospects for next year?
Answer: Q3 is strong due to tax carry distributions. The carry revenue experience is diversified and aligned with industry trends, with no specific timing for realizations.
Question 4: How should we think about stock-based comp issuance and share count direction next year?
Answer: Stock-based compensation is expected to remain stable or slightly higher. The company actively manages dilution through buybacks, with $86 million remaining in the buyback authorization.
Question 5: Can you provide more details on the retail business and distribution partnerships?
Answer: The retail business has about $4 billion in AUM, with significant growth in RIA relationships and new products like the infrastructure interval fund. The company is also preparing to launch a private equity fund for individual investors.
Question 6: Are there concerns in the private credit landscape given recent bankruptcies?
Answer: The company is not seeing a slowdown in private credit and believes the asset class will continue to grow. The insurance sector remains productive, contributing significantly to recent fundraising.
[Sentiment Analysis]
Analysts were positive, focusing on the strong financial performance and strategic outlook. Management conveyed confidence in achieving long-term growth targets and emphasized disciplined capital management.
[Quarterly Comparison]
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 | YoY Change |
|-------------------------------|---------|---------|------------|
| Fee-related earnings | $X | $X | +18% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $X | $X | +16% |
| Adjusted net income | $X | $X | +18% |
| Total AUM | $87B | $80B | +9% |
| Fee-paying AUM | $70B | $64B | +10% |
| Contracted not-yet-fee-paying AUM | $9.2B | $7.9B | +17% |
[Risks and Concerns]
Potential risks include market volatility affecting fundraising and investment performance, regulatory changes impacting the alternative asset management industry, and competition from other asset managers.
[Final Takeaway]
GCM Grosvenor delivered a strong third quarter with record AUM and significant growth in key financial metrics. The company is well-positioned for future growth, with clear strategic goals and a disciplined approach to capital management. The positive sentiment from analysts and management's confidence in achieving long-term targets underscore the company's robust outlook.
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