Gold futures staged a modest rebound on September 9, with COMEX gold settling at $4,447.2 per ounce, up 0.18%. In the domestic market, SHFE gold experienced a sharp dip in overnight trading before gradually recovering, closing at 956.04 yuan per gram, a 0.62% gain.
The core driver behind the price stabilization stems from a combination of a softer US dollar and renewed ETF inflows. On Wednesday, the US dollar index continued its downward trend, touching a low of 98.62 before settling at 98.71, a decline of 0.15%. Meanwhile, a report released by the World Gold Council on the 9th revealed that global gold ETF inflows reached $18 billion in August, marking the second-largest monthly inflow on record, with funds listed in North America and Europe dominating the activity.
This convergence of a weakening dollar and incremental ETF buying provided the repair momentum for gold prices following three consecutive sessions of decline. However, the pressure exerted by oil prices breaking above $100 remains a tangible counterforce. During the trading day, Brent crude briefly surpassed the $100 per barrel mark, reaching a high of $100.18. The escalation came after US forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on the 8th, prompting Iran to launch retaliatory strikes on US military targets in Jordan. This marked the largest-scale attack on vessels since the conflict began six months ago, with the escalating situation in the Middle East fueling the surge in oil prices.
The rising oil prices have directly intensified inflation expectations, emerging as the most immediate factor weighing on gold. Following the stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll data for August, market odds for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve have climbed to approximately 60%. The heightened expectation of rising interest rates has significantly increased the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Looking ahead, Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI data are poised to become the core variables influencing the short-term direction of gold prices. Should inflation data once again exceed expectations on the upside, the probability of a rate hike could climb further, potentially pushing gold prices lower once more. Conversely, if inflationary pressures show signs of easing and rate hike expectations diminish, gold prices may regain support.
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