While the national real estate market remains in the early stages of stabilization, Shanghai has taken the lead in achieving a simultaneous rebound in both transaction volume and prices for second-hand homes, essentially entering the right side of the market bottom. From a volume perspective, following the end of the "Golden March and Silver April" period, Shanghai's daily online transaction records still reached a near five-year high. Excluding seasonal Lunar New Year disruptions, monthly online transaction volumes have remained above the critical threshold of 20,000 units for six consecutive months. Price-wise, Shanghai's second-hand home transaction prices increased by 0.8% and 0.9% month-on-month in March and April, respectively, marking a cumulative rebound of 1.8% from the low point. Regarding the stabilization sequence, older, smaller properties in Shanghai were the first to stop declining and begin recovering, while high-end properties for improvement have also shown signs of stabilization since May, with both ends of the market leading the trend.
As a pioneering city sample crossing the real estate inflection point, the driving factors behind Shanghai's price stabilization can be broken down as follows:
First, demand has stabilized. The combined transaction area for new and second-hand homes in Shanghai in 2025 showed a slight recovery compared to 2024, indicating that the adjustment pressure in Shanghai's property market stems mainly from the supply side, with less concern over demand contraction.
Second, supply has contracted. The number of second-hand home listings in Shanghai peaked in April 2025 and has since declined rapidly, leading the trend by approximately six months compared to Beijing and Guangzhou.
Third, valuations are reasonable, and rents have stopped declining. In 2026, Shanghai's rental yield generally ranges between 1.6% and 2.7%, with an average of about 2.0%, which is not significantly lower than the net rental yield levels of other major international cities. Furthermore, since March, rental prices in Shanghai have continued to rebound, indicating that the price-to-earnings ratio for Shanghai properties is at a bottom while earnings per share are turning upward.
Fourth, policy stimulus has played a role. In late February, Shanghai introduced the "Shanghai Seven Measures," among which raising the upper limit for provident fund loans played a crucial role in stabilizing the property market. Currently, the median total transaction price for second-hand homes in Shanghai remains between 2.6 million and 2.8 million yuan. Raising the provident fund loan limit to 2.4 million yuan essentially provides interest subsidies to eligible homebuyers. Additionally, Shanghai's policy of purchasing properties for public housing has bolstered confidence in low-priced properties, and this policy has now been expanded to all central urban districts.
Drawing on the driving factors behind Shanghai's real estate market stabilization, we have scored the progress toward market stabilization in 25 key cities across five dimensions: transaction volume, listing prices, listing volume, negotiation rates, and rental prices.
The scoring results indicate that Shanghai and Suzhou lead the nation in stabilization progress, with comprehensive five-dimensional scores of 87.5 and 72.0, respectively. In terms of price trends, Suzhou has also largely achieved a halt in the decline of both listing and transaction prices. Considering the overall state of its real estate market, we believe the stabilization trend is likely to be sustained.
Following closely are cities such as Tianjin, Beijing, Zhuhai, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Wuxi, Xuzhou, and Dalian, with comprehensive five-dimensional scores mostly ranging between 50 and 70. Among these, most have already seen a rebound in transaction and listing prices from their lows. Although housing prices are still in a phase of consolidation, they are generally approaching stabilization.
Overall, we believe that as the national property market moves toward stabilization, housing prices in the aforementioned cities are expected to be among the first to stabilize.
Risk Warnings: Unexpected declines in rental prices, weaker-than-expected real estate policies, and unexpected volatility in real estate or stock markets.
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