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Limited seats available, first come first served. Let us embark together on the journey toward sustainability! [Click to register] Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast on October 14, after the company's third-quarter revenue reached a record 鈧?1.66 billion, up approximately 25% quarter-on-quarter. ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet stated that continued expansion of AI-related investment is prompting customers to repeatedly upgrade their short-term and medium-term semiconductor equipment demand forecasts, with some customers already beginning to inquire about equipment orders for 2029 and 2030. As existing capacity plans struggle to meet expected demand for 2027 and 2028, ASML is studying further expansion of its 2028 production capacity, with the increase potentially exceeding the previously planned 30%.
The core signal from the entire earnings report is very clear: the downstream AI infrastructure expansion wave has already substantially transmitted to the most upstream segment of semiconductor equipment.
Q3 Revenue Hits Historic High, Net Profit Up Nearly 70% Quarter-on-Quarter
ASML's third-quarter net sales reached 鈧?1.66 billion, up approximately 25% from 鈧?.33 billion in the second quarter, setting a new single-quarter revenue record. During the same period, the company's net profit grew from 鈧?.92 billion in the second quarter to 鈧?.96 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 69.9%. Profitability also improved further. Third-quarter gross margin reached 57.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 54% in the previous quarter.
Financial Metric | Q2 | Q3 | QoQ Change Net Sales | 鈧?.33B | 鈧?1.66B | +25.0% Net Profit | 鈧?.92B | 鈧?.96B | +69.9% Gross Margin | 54.0% | 57.5% | +3.5 percentage points
Full-Year Revenue Guidance Lower Bound Raised by 鈧? Billion, Q4 Expected to Maintain High Gross Margin
After recording a record-breaking third quarter, ASML raised its full-year 2026 net sales forecast from the previous 鈧?3 billion to 鈧?5 billion range, to 鈧?4 billion to 鈧?5 billion. This adjustment mainly raised the lower bound of the full-year revenue guidance, while the upper bound remained unchanged. ASML also expects full-year 2026 gross margin to reach approximately 56%. For the fourth quarter, the company expects net sales of 鈧?4.2 billion to 鈧?5.2 billion, with a gross margin of approximately 57%. Based on the midpoint of the fourth-quarter revenue guidance of 鈧?4.7 billion, ASML expects fourth-quarter sales to grow approximately 26% further compared to the third quarter.
Capacity Beginning to Be "Stretched Thin": 2028 Expansion Could Exceed the Original 30% Target
Compared to the financial figures already in the bag, the market is more focused on the long-term capacity bottleneck disclosed by CEO Christophe Fouquet in the earnings report. Fouquet stated that as market expectations for the scale and duration of AI investment continue to extend, customers are continuously upgrading their short-to-medium-term equipment procurement plans, and some customers have even begun to coordinate schedules for 2029 and 2030. This "advance booking" has directly disrupted ASML's original capacity expansion pace: there is a supply-demand gap over the next two years: according to ASML's existing supply plans, the company's output capacity for 2027 and 2028 is already insufficient to fully absorb customers' expected demand. Re-evaluating the 2028 expansion ceiling: ASML originally planned to increase its 2028 capacity by 30%, but faced with continuously swelling order expectations, management is currently studying whether the 2028 expansion can be further pushed above 30%.
However, lithography machines are not ordinary standardized industrial products. Their manufacturing involves extremely complex precision optical systems (such as Zeiss lenses) and coordination with hundreds of core suppliers worldwide. For ASML to raise its capacity ceiling, it must bring the entire supply chain along for expansion years in advance. Currently, ASML has not yet formally finalized a new capacity target for 2028, nor has it disclosed how much capital expenditure this round of additional expansion will require. But this earnings report at least confirms one thing: as downstream wafer fabs begin to lock in orders for 2030 in advance, the span of ASML's current AI boom cycle is clearly exceeding previous market expectations.
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