A recent survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that American consumers' short-term and medium-term inflation expectations increased in June, driven by anticipated significant rises in healthcare costs and rent.
Consumers now expect the inflation rate to be 3.7% over the next year, up from 3.5% in May. Their expectation for inflation over the next three years has climbed to 3.3%, marking the highest level since June 2022 and exceeding the previous figure of 3.1%. Expectations for inflation over the next five years remained steady at 3%.
The survey also found that consumers are feeling more optimistic about their personal financial situations and the labor market, even as some concerns persist.
Following several months of rising energy costs, consumers reported that they anticipate gasoline price increases to be at their lowest level since mid-2022. Their outlook for food prices improved slightly in June, but they expect spending on healthcare and rent to increase.
Consumers' expectations of voluntarily leaving a job fell to the lowest level since July 2023.
The New York Fed's survey was conducted from June 1 to June 30, 2026.
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