On January 12th, the non-farm payroll data released last week revealed a "slowing job growth, yet overall economic resilience remains" characteristic. This scenario has further solidified market expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts in the future, providing robust mid-term support for gold prices. As we enter this week, numerous Fed officials are scheduled to deliver speeches intensively; their stances and statements will be crucial for the subsequent direction of market expectations. Of course, the evolution of geopolitical risks remains a focal point, with the following major events poised to be key drivers directly impacting gold's short-term fluctuations.
During the early Asian trading session on Monday (January 12th), the gold price gapped significantly higher at the open, with the immediate trigger being the recently escalated US-Iran tensions, a geopolitical shockwave sweeping through global markets. On one hand, large-scale protests have erupted in Iran due to the economic crisis, plunging the domestic social situation into turmoil; on the other hand, US President Trump has publicly threatened potential intervention, including military means, to support the protesters within Iran.
Simultaneously, US domestic politics and central bank independence face new challenges. US federal prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. As this investigation is led by a prosecutor appointed by Trump, the market widely interprets it as political pressure exerted by the Trump administration on the Fed due to disagreements over interest rate policy. Currently, the White House has referred the matter to the Department of Justice. Trump himself has been unequivocal about his intentions, publicly planning to dismiss Powell upon the conclusion of his term in May 2026.
Troubles never come singly. While the situations in Venezuela and the dispute over Greenland's sovereignty remain unresolved, the Trump administration appears ready to open new fronts, demonstrating a top-tier ability to continuously "manufacture" and escalate global risk-off events. Against this macro and geopolitical backdrop, each new wave of uncertainty only serves to inject continuous momentum into the rising gold price. Therefore, in the face of the current frenzied and extreme market environment, every price pullback should be viewed as a strategic opportunity to establish long positions.
From a technical perspective, although gold is currently in a clearly strong state, this does not offer many operational opportunities; instead, the violent, disorderly, and emotional swings in the market increase the difficulty and risk of short-term trading. Consequently, conservative traders may opt to stand aside initially this week, avoiding the murky waters of risk-off sentiment. Key technical levels to watch intraday include the battle around the 4600 psychological level, with support below focusing on the area of the day's gap and the 5-day moving average around 4510-4500.
In summary, the most rational strategy currently is to "maintain a firm long-term bullish view while avoiding chasing the rally in the short term." Specifically, investors should utilize new highs to reduce positions or move up stop-losses to protect profits, converting floating gains into a tangible safety cushion. Those who are under-invested or hold light positions should treat cash as a valuable "option," patiently waiting for the market to experience a pullback—due to technical selling pressure or fading sentiment—to at least the 4540-4550 USD, or even the 4480-4500 USD support zone, before establishing long positions in a phased, pyramid-style manner to lay a solid foundation for the next fundamentally-driven upswing. The real risk lies not in missing the high point, but in entering heavily at the peak of sentiment.
Therefore, the intraday trading recommendations are as follows: Gold: Go long around 4555-4560, stop loss at 4540, target the 4600 mark, hold if breached.
Key financial data and events to watch today: Monday, January 12, 2026 TBD G7 Finance Ministers Meeting 02:00 (Next Day) US 10-year Treasury Note Auction - High Yield 02:00 (Next Day) US 10-year Treasury Note Auction - Bid-to-Cover Ratio
Comments