As 2025 draws to a close, capital markets are consolidating strength amid volatility while nurturing new opportunities through transformation. At this pivotal juncture for positioning 2026 investments, Great Wall Fund convened its annual strategy conference on December 16, where multiple fund managers shared insights on navigating next year's financial landscape. Here are the highlights:
**Su Junyan: A-Share Market Outlook for 2026** Following 2025's tech sector boom and cyclical industry reversals that drove significant valuation expansion, Su anticipates 2026's market rally will transition from pure valuation-driven to dual earnings+valuation drivers. Structural shifts may evolve from export-led growth to synchronized domestic/foreign demand. Key catalysts include: 1) Untapped consumer spending potential (currently low GDP share) 2) Expected fiscal expansion to stimulate demand Top sectors to watch: 1) Semiconductors & defense: Domestic computing chips may achieve breakthroughs amid "15th Five-Year Plan" initiatives 2) "Anti-involution" industries: Capacity rationalization in chemicals/new energy 3) Services-led consumption: Policy-supported recovery in F&B and related goods 4) Real estate: Potential bottoming as new starts approach long-term equilibrium
**Zhang Yan: "Fixed Income+" in Low-Rate Era** With bond yields trending downward amid accommodative monetary policy and normalized yield curves, Zhang sees favorable conditions for "fixed income+" products. A-shares maintain structural opportunities due to: - Policy tailwinds from new five-year plan - Improving corporate earnings - Healthy valuation levels Convertibles remain attractive given tight supply-demand dynamics.
**Lei Jun: Quantitative & Index Investing** Noting increasing market efficiency, Great Wall Fund has developed three index strategies: 1) Pure replication (e.g., dividend/low-volatility, STAR Market indices) 2) "Index+" approaches capturing both beta/alpha 3) Absolute return strategies using dynamic asset allocation
**Qu Shaojie: Global Barbell Strategy** For overseas exposure, Qu recommends balancing: - Growth assets: U.S. tech stocks (AI as secular driver) - Defensive plays: HK dividend stocks (undervalued yield appeal) AI thematic focus areas: autonomous driving, chips, large models, robotics.
**Tech Sector Deep Dive** Managers foresee continued but more balanced tech momentum in 2026, highlighting: - Solid-state batteries (potential commercialization) - Commercial space (reusable rocket breakthroughs) - AI applications (agent adoption tipping point) Quantum computing may reach inflection in later years.
**Healthcare Innovation** Pharma's investment thesis shifts toward: - Globalization-capable innovators - AI-medical integration (policy/tech catalysts) 2026 could see dual alpha/beta opportunities in biopharma as clinical data addresses skepticism.
**AI Bubble Debate** While bubble concerns persist, managers argue: - Ecosystem diversification mitigates overconcentration risks - Valuation multiples remain reasonable Upstream compute infrastructure shows strongest visibility, with model/platform wars and diverse applications creating mid/downstream opportunities.
Disclaimer: Market risks apply. Views subject to change without notice.
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