On October 20-22 by the banks of Shanghai's Huangpu River, the 2026 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference returns once again. Nobel Prize and Turing Award winners will share their insights on the future and trends of technology on site, and the internet-famous professors who "rescue" people from anxiety and the era of involution—Macfarlane and Xiang Biao—will engage in a live dialogue!
Limited spots available, first come first served. Let us journey together toward sustainability! [Click to Register] Today, the National Bureau of Statistics released the overall economic performance for the first three quarters. Overall, in the first three quarters, China's national economy withstood pressure and maintained steady operation, showing a development trend of new momentum and improved structure. GDP in the first three quarters grew by 4.6% year-on-year at constant prices. By quarter, GDP grew by 5.0%, 4.3%, and 4.5% year-on-year in the first, second, and third quarters respectively; on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the third quarter grew by 1.2%. The 4.6% growth rate for the first three quarters falls within the annual growth target range of 4.5%-5% set at the beginning of the year.
In the first three quarters, agricultural value added grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with a favorable production situation, and animal husbandry maintained steady growth. Industrial production showed some divergence, with traditional industries growing slowly, while equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing provided notable support with faster growth. In the first three quarters, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing value added growing by 10.2% and high-tech manufacturing value added growing by 14.3%. By product, the output of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots grew by 62.5%, 39.5%, and 29.1% year-on-year respectively, representing rapid growth. From January to August, industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide achieved total profits of 5,272 billion yuan, up 15.7% year-on-year, maintaining relatively fast growth. In terms of services, value added in the service sector grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with modern services performing well.
In terms of consumption, the growth rate remains relatively low. In the first three quarters, total retail sales of consumer goods and services grew by 2.6% year-on-year, with service retail sales growing by 5.0% and goods retail sales growing by only 1.0%. Boosting consumption remains an arduous task. Some consumer goods supported by policy grew rapidly, such as communication equipment retail sales which grew by 18.1%, but catering and other consumption grew relatively slowly. To boost consumption, the key is still to raise residents' income levels and their expectations for future income—consumer confidence is crucial.
Residents' income is mainly divided into wage income and property income. Currently, raising residents' wage income is not easy, because many enterprises, especially those in traditional industries, face operational difficulties, so enhancing residents' property income is crucial. Recently, new real estate policies were introduced, providing interest subsidies for eligible first-home loans of 1.5 million yuan or less. These measures may boost the housing market and stabilize housing prices, but are unlikely to bring about significant price increases. Currently, China's slow bull and long bull market has encountered significant corrections. I have consistently called on all sectors of society to actively nurture this hard-won market trend, which is an important aspect of raising residents' property income. Taking decisive measures to increase market rescue efforts, promote the market to stop falling and stabilize, boost investor confidence, and sustain the slow bull and long bull market is key to enhancing residents' wealth effect, and can also offset to some extent the household asset shrinkage caused by falling housing prices in recent years, which is crucial for boosting consumption. At the same time, a prosperous capital market is also crucial for developing new quality productive forces, as it can support more technology innovation enterprises to list on the capital market through IPOs and obtain valuable capital.
In the first three quarters, national fixed asset investment declined by 7.2% year-on-year, or 4.2% after excluding real estate development investment. Real estate development investment continued to decline sharply. By sector, infrastructure investment declined by 4.2% year-on-year, manufacturing investment declined by 2.1%, and real estate development investment declined by 20.6%. Real estate development investment has been continuously declining in recent years, significantly dragging down fixed asset investment and also affecting many upstream industries. Therefore, stabilizing the housing market is very important for stabilizing economic growth. Taking decisive measures to boost housing market performance will help stabilize the economic growth rate and fixed asset investment.
Among the "three driving forces," consumption growth is relatively low, fixed asset investment has declined notably, while exports have grown rapidly. In the first three quarters, total goods imports and exports approached 40 trillion yuan, up 18.8% year-on-year, with exports growing by 16.4% and imports growing by 22.3%. China's export products have strong competitiveness, and rapid export growth with continued optimization of trade structure has become an important force for stabilizing economic growth. However, with rapid export growth, next year may also face certain challenges, as some countries and regions may adopt countermeasures. Therefore, next year greater emphasis should be placed on boosting domestic demand, shoring up weak spots, taking decisive measures to boost the housing market and stock market performance, promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand.
In the first three quarters, price trends showed divergence. The national consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year, a relatively low increase; the producer price index (PPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year, with September up 5.0% year-on-year, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and up 1.2% month-on-month. This indicates that the impact of imported inflation is quite evident. The Middle East conflict has restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping international oil prices at high levels, which has contributed to the PPI increase. Enterprises face pressure from rising raw material and energy prices on one hand, while consumer-end prices are weak with fierce product price competition on the other. Therefore, boosting domestic demand is particularly important going forward, so that enterprises can achieve relatively stable profit growth.
In the first three quarters, national per capita disposable income was 34,230 yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year in nominal terms, or 4.4% in real terms after adjusting for price factors. Urban residents' per capita disposable income grew by 4.5% year-on-year in nominal terms, while rural residents' per capita disposable income grew by 6.3% year-on-year in nominal terms. Overall, in the first three quarters, China's national economy withstood pressure amid complex internal and external circumstances, with new industries and new momentum playing a greater role, and some important indicators also showing positive changes. However, it should also be noted that the problem of insufficient domestic demand is quite prominent, and the foundation for steady economic improvement still needs to be consolidated. Decisive measures should be taken to stabilize the housing market and boost the stock market, enhancing residents' wealth effect—this is key to promoting consumption. Going forward, it is crucial to persist in deepening reform and opening up, strengthen innovation-driven development, focus on leveraging the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, step up efforts to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, effectively safeguard and improve people's livelihoods, and push the economy toward new, better, and more positive development. We look forward to China's economy achieving steady growth in the future. MACD golden cross signals have formed—these stocks are performing well!
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