Wall Street is increasingly optimistic about copper's prospects, with Jefferies analysts making the most aggressive forecast yet. They have raised their 2030 price target to $17,636 per tonne, stating plainly, "We are not bullish enough on copper." The driving forces behind this view are accelerating demand from AI data center construction and grid upgrades, combined with supply shortfalls from two major global mines. Goldman Sachs has also significantly increased its copper price forecasts, with JPMorgan and HSBC joining the bullish chorus.
Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina recently wrote in a client note, "It turns out we are not bullish enough on copper." He subsequently raised the 2030 price target substantially to $8 per pound, equivalent to $17,636 per tonne. This stands as the highest known copper price prediction on Wall Street currently. For comparison, COMEX copper is trading around $6.34 per pound, while LME copper is near $13,583 per tonne. LaFemina's 2030 target implies a potential gain of approximately 30% from current levels.
LaFemina, a veteran Wall Street metals analyst with over a decade of experience at Lehman Brothers and Barclays before joining Jefferies, stated directly in the report, "We now have the highest copper price forecast on Wall Street because we see strong US industrial demand and supply remaining tight."
AI's Spending Spree: Copper is a Prime Beneficiary
LaFemina's core thesis is straightforward: massive construction of AI data centers, alongside what he terms the "powering up America" theme involving grid and infrastructure upgrades, will drive a material acceleration in copper demand. Goldman Sachs previously estimated that capital expenditure on AI by hyperscale cloud providers could surge to $800 billion this year. These investments ultimately materialize as physical infrastructure, for which copper is an irreplaceable core material for power transmission. LaFemina's judgment is that copper and aluminum prices have significant room to rise before they begin to weigh meaningfully on the broader macroeconomy.
Supply Side Challenges: Two Key Mines Underperform
While demand is one side of the equation, supply presents another hurdle. A team led by Goldman Sachs analyst Aurelia Waltham noted that the recovery in copper mine supply this year is progressing significantly slower than anticipated. The firm has lowered its 2026 global copper mine supply forecast by 350,000 tonnes, representing roughly 1.5% of global mine supply. Approximately 200,000 tonnes of this reduction is attributed to combined underperformance at Indonesia's Grasberg mine and the Democratic Republic of Congo's Kamoa-Kakula mine, with both operations not expected to return to full production until 2028. Concurrently, stronger-than-expected US copper imports in the first half of 2026 have further tightened the supply-demand balance in markets outside the US. Goldman Sachs expects US copper inventories to build to 900,000 tonnes in 2026, up from a prior forecast of 550,000 tonnes, a move driven by stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs.
Consequently, Goldman Sachs has raised its LME copper price forecasts for end-2026 and the 2027 average to $13,735 and $13,800 per tonne respectively, a significant increase from previous estimates of $12,465 and $12,150.
Goldman Sachs Outlines Three Price Scenarios
The bank also outlined three price scenarios to account for key market uncertainties. Scenario one involves a sustained blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Here, demand weakness and supply reductions from sulfur shortages largely offset each other, but a sharp contraction in global risk appetite could push LME copper toward a fundamental support level around $12,600 before resuming an upward trajectory. Scenario two assumes the US announces copper tariffs, effective January 2027. If announced in June 2026, accelerated imports in the second half could drive prices above $14,000. However, prices would likely retreat in 2027 once tariffs take effect and imports halt. Scenario three envisions a clear announcement that no tariffs will be imposed. In this case, import demand would fade, leading to renewed supply surpluses outside the US, potentially pushing the 2027 average price down to around $12,800.
Wall Street Consensus is Forming
Beyond Jefferies and Goldman Sachs, HSBC informed clients last week that "metals prices are generally in an uptrend, with some commodities driven by supply disruptions related to the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand." The bank also warned of a "super squeeze" risk for commodities. Analysts at JPMorgan similarly communicated to clients that copper's upward cycle is being driven by tightening supply, accelerated grid investment, AI data center demand, and broader industrial electrification. From Jefferies and Goldman Sachs to HSBC and JPMorgan, the assessments of major Wall Street metals research teams are converging: copper is entering a new phase of structural supply tightness, potentially paving the way for higher LME copper prices.
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