美股新春“猛虎变喵喵”？历史数据：还能涨回来！

第一财经2022-02-01

在辞旧迎新的除夕夜里，标普500指数和纳指结束了自2020年3月以来表现最糟糕的一个月。标普500指数和纳指在1月分别累计下挫5.3%和9%，后者更录得2008年以来最差的1月份表现。同期，道指收跌3.3%，为去年11月以来最大单月跌幅，追踪小盘股的罗素2000指数重挫9.66%。高烧不退的通胀、去而复返的新冠疫情、短期难解的供应链瓶颈，加之对美联储加速收紧货币政策的预期，俨然已成横于美股上行途中...

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Comments

TanWk
2022-02-02
TanWk
多謝分享
hhyw
2022-02-02
hhyw
瘋狂，太瘋狂了😑😑
Alexkoay
2022-02-02
Alexkoay
[微笑]
Paulyang
2022-02-02
Paulyang
所以說是要加倉還是減倉
Tome
2022-02-02
Tome
贊👍
Futre
2022-02-02
Futre
贊👍

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Tool）显示，交易员预测年内加息100个基点的概率已升至92.1%。要知道，1个月前该预测概率仅为34.5%。目前，对今年加息125个基点和150个基点的概率预测已分别升至69.9%和35.7%。交易员预测年内加息100个基点概率升至92.1% （来源：芝商所美联储观察工具）美国银行的首席经济学家哈里斯（Ethan Harris）将今年美国国内生产总值（GDP）增速从4%下调至3.6%，并预计通胀水平在今年底前仍将高于3%。该行预测，美联储将自3月起，在年内剩余的每一次货币政策会议上加息25个基点，当年共计加息7次（175个基点），到2023年底前，联邦基金利率将达到2.75%~3.00%，从而抑制通胀并减缓增长。周一，三位美联储高官就货币政策路径发表看法。旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）称，在打击通胀方面，美联储“完全没有落后”，并强调加息应是“渐进的”。与此同时，堪萨斯城联储主席埃斯特·乔治（Esther George）认为，大幅缩减近9万亿美元的资产负债表，有助于缓解美联储在短期激进加息的紧迫性。里士满联储主席托马斯·巴金（Thomas Barkin）则表示，“加息受到商界欢迎”，其步伐取决于经济数据。在刚刚过去的周末，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）在接受英媒采访时表示，如果通胀居高不下，美联储可能会将加息幅度扩大至50个基点。他同时重申，目前仍维持今年加息3次，每次25个基点的预期不变。多数回调都是趁低吸纳的好时机？历史数据显示，标普500指数平均每年有3次超5%或以上的回调，每年一次10%以上的回调。在全年上涨的年份中，标普500指数平均最大回调幅度达11%。鉴于美股自2020年3月的暴跌反弹至今，去年仅遭遇一次约5%的回调，券商LPL Financial的首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克（Ryan Detrick）认为：“回调时机已至。”高盛团队的统计数据显示，自1950年以来，在非经济衰退期间出现的21次盘整中（高位回落超10%），标普500指数平均回调幅度达15%。值得庆幸的是，多数回调都被证实是趁低吸纳的好时机。自1950年以来，标普500指数经历的33次盘整中，平均历时约5个月，峰谷跌幅达18%。但是，若投资者在股指较高位回落10%时入市，此后12个月的平均回报率达15%。其中，最大的区别是美国经济是否进入衰退。高盛策略师大卫·科斯汀（David Kostin）的团队在报告中表示：“除非经济进入衰退，否则盘整很少会变成熊市。”美联储加息、中期选举左右走势事实上，历史数据表明在加息周期中，美股素来表现良好。据Truist联席首席投资官基思·勒纳 (Keith Lerner) 统计，自1950年代以来的12次美联储加息周期中，美股年均增幅达9%，其中11次实现了正回报。唯一的例外发生在1972~1974 年间，即经济危机期间。券商LPL Financial统计显示，自1980年以来标普500指数在所有8次加息周期中均实现上涨。其中，首次加息后6个月平均涨幅7.5%，12个月的平均涨幅10.8%。根据彭博汇编的数据，标普500指数年末点位预测平均值为4982点，较1月末收盘价4515点仍有10.34%的上浮空间。更长期而言，形势甚至更为乐观。LPL Financial的测算发现，美联储首次加息通常发生于经济周期的中早期阶段，此后美股牛市仍能持续约40个月。事实上，首次加息后至牛市见顶前，股指的平均涨幅达67%。“这意味着在下一次熊市来临前，标普500指数有望攀升至7700点。”德特里克在一份报告中写道。此外，一个不可忽视的风险或发生在今年下半年，也就是11月举行的美国中期选举。随着中期选举脚步临近，鉴于选举结果及其导致的后续政策变化的不确定性，投资者谨慎观望情绪将逐级上升。股票交易者年鉴统计了自1946年以来的数据显示，标普500指数在中期选举年的平均涨幅较常年平均低出约3个百分点，其中新任总统的首次中期选举中股指表现尤其差。中期选举年，美股表现逊于常年 （图源：Hirsch Holdings）根据LPL Financial 的数据，自 1950 年以来，标准普尔 500 指数在中期选举年内的高位回调幅度平均达17.1%。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9091978452,"gmtCreate":1643768730271,"gmtModify":1676533853898,"author":{"id":"3581999782387935","authorId":"3581999782387935","name":"TanWk","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/9070f2d087a7f991923846cbc07db8f0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"多謝分享","listText":"多謝分享","text":"多謝分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091978452","repostId":1130050232,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9091932213,"gmtCreate":1643761908255,"gmtModify":1676533852050,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"瘋狂，太瘋狂了😑😑","listText":"瘋狂，太瘋狂了😑😑","text":"瘋狂，太瘋狂了😑😑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091932213","repostId":1130050232,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9091995246,"gmtCreate":1643760626912,"gmtModify":1676533851764,"author":{"id":"3578446798028290","authorId":"3578446798028290","name":"Alexkoay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a71ab4735585e5f4103341ba016f09","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091995246","repostId":1130050232,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9091057796,"gmtCreate":1643753627931,"gmtModify":1676533850718,"author":{"id":"3573356109011085","authorId":"3573356109011085","name":"Paulyang","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"所以說是要加倉還是減倉","listText":"所以說是要加倉還是減倉","text":"所以說是要加倉還是減倉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091057796","repostId":1130050232,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9091055845,"gmtCreate":1643752778570,"gmtModify":1676533850647,"author":{"id":"3570833668911971","authorId":"3570833668911971","name":"Tome","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47f140f55f4badb19ca06d16064de5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"贊👍","listText":"贊👍","text":"贊👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091055845","repostId":1130050232,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9091052014,"gmtCreate":1643752586189,"gmtModify":1676533850615,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"贊👍","listText":"贊👍","text":"贊👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091052014","repostId":1130050232,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":139,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":13,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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