On April 8th, as the six-week-long Middle East conflict entered its most critical phase, U.S. President Trump unexpectedly announced an agreement with Iran on a two-week provisional ceasefire. This news swiftly alleviated the tense atmosphere, putting a temporary halt to what could have escalated into further military confrontation. The agreement was reached less than two hours before Trump's stated deadline, marking a dramatic shift from hardline threats to diplomatic compromise and creating a buffer for subsequent formal negotiations scheduled in Islamabad, Pakistan.
This major development acted like a "peace bomb," quickly easing market concerns over Middle East tensions and triggering sharp fluctuations across global financial markets. Oil prices plummeted by over $20 within a short period, while gold prices surged by more than 2%, hitting a new high in over two weeks. Overall market sentiment shifted rapidly from risk-off to risk-on, with the U.S. dollar index also declining notably to a more than two-week low. Over the next two weeks, the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the actual implementation of Middle East peace efforts will remain key variables influencing global commodities and financial markets.
Simultaneously, macroeconomic data will also play a significant role. The Fed's March meeting minutes are scheduled for release on Wednesday (early Thursday Beijing time), followed by U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on Thursday and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Friday. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision and speeches from several Fed officials on Wednesday warrant close attention.
In gold trading, prices experienced volatile consolidation yesterday, forming a platform support near the 4620-4600 range before rebounding and closing above 4700 by the end of the session, resulting in a daily candlestick with a long lower shadow. After hitting around 4857 this morning, prices retreated but have since stabilized above the 5- and 20-day moving averages. Short-term moving averages are providing upward support, and the MACD has formed a golden cross, confirming a short-term bullish trend. Intraday support is eyed near the 4780/70 area, with stronger support around the 4720/15 moving average zone. The 4700 level serves as a key defensive line for bulls; above this level, a震荡偏强 (volatile but slightly bullish) outlook is maintained.
On the hourly chart, an early surge to around 4857 was followed by a quick pullback, indicating that news-driven moves lack sustainability. Consecutive bearish candlesticks have formed a pattern of a long upper shadow with minor retracement, suggesting weakening short-term bullish momentum. Near-term support is anticipated around 4750; given the influence of news, a break below this level appears unlikely for now. Resistance is observed in the 4857-70 zone. Even if prices rise further, they may face resistance near 4900. Therefore, while gold may see continued upward movement today, significant upside potential is limited. Given the impact of news, traders are advised to observe more and trade less. Aggressive traders may consider buying on dips for a continuation of the uptrend, while approaching 4900 could present a selling opportunity.
Trading suggestion: Consider buying near 4770 or 4750, targeting the 4857-4900 range. A short position can be initiated upon first touch of 4900, with a stop-loss above 4920, aiming for a 50-80 dollar profit. Other entry points will be provided during the session.
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