Abstract
Zillow Group, Inc. will report its fourth-quarter results on February 10, 2026 Post Market; this preview compiles last quarter’s actuals, the company’s guidance framework, and street forecasts to frame revenue, margins, EPS, and business-mix dynamics heading into the print.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, the market expects Zillow Group, Inc. to deliver revenue of $650.25 million, up 19.05% year over year, EPS of $0.40, and EBIT of -$20.31 million. Consensus implies continued high gross profit margin and a moderate net profit margin, though explicit YoY margin forecasts were not disclosed. Zillow’s main business is projected to benefit from resilient housing traffic and improving partner monetization, while segment momentum is most visible in Rentals, which is positioned for further demand capture in constrained urban markets.
The most promising segment is Rentals, which delivered $174.00 million last quarter and is set up for double-digit year-over-year growth as inventory tightness continues to funnel demand to performance-based advertising and leasing solutions.
Last Quarter Review
Zillow Group, Inc. reported last quarter revenue of $676.00 million, a gross profit margin of 72.63%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $10.00 million with a net profit margin of 1.48%, and adjusted EPS of $0.44, with year-over-year growth of 25.71% for adjusted EPS.
A notable highlight was better-than-expected execution relative to consensus on revenue and EPS alongside disciplined cost control that kept unit economics in line. Main business performance showed Residential revenue of $435.00 million, Rentals revenue of $174.00 million, Mortgages revenue of $53.00 million, and Other revenue of $14.00 million, with Residential remaining the core revenue driver and Rentals gaining share on a YoY basis.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business: Residential (buyer/seller and partner services)
Residential remains Zillow Group, Inc.’s primary revenue engine at $435.00 million last quarter, underpinned by Premier Agent, seller solutions, and marketplace demand from transaction-ready consumers. Heading into this quarter, the key swing factor is the pace of lead conversion as mortgage rates fluctuate within a narrowed band and for-sale inventory gradually normalizes from trough levels. With the market expecting total revenue of $650.25 million and EPS of $0.40, the setup suggests Residential will again carry the quarter, though mix could modestly shift toward Rentals if affordability keeps buyers on the sidelines longer.
Conversion efficiency and advertiser budget elasticity are central. When agent ROI improves via higher-intent leads and better routing, partner spend tends to expand through mid-quarter budget top-ups, supporting sequential stability even if macro volumes are subdued. Watch also for any commentary on seller funnels; if new listings accelerate, Premier Agent could capture upside through higher contact volumes with relatively fixed traffic acquisition costs, protecting the segment’s contribution margin.
Highest-potential business: Rentals
Rentals posted $174.00 million last quarter and has emerged as a scalable growth vector, benefiting from landlords’ need to keep occupancy steady and price dynamically in tight markets. The quarter’s outlook hinges on advertiser demand for performance products and the cadence of product launches that improve lease-up velocity and lead quality. If on-platform engagement remains high and cost-per-lease economics hold, Rentals can extend double-digit growth even as seasonality moderates after peak leasing months.
The opportunity is two-fold: first, deeper penetration across large property managers that value workflow integration and measurement; second, expansion into single-family rentals where demand is more rate-sensitive but structurally supported by affordability constraints in homebuying. Execution risk lies in balancing monetization with user experience, as aggressive ad density can weigh on renter satisfaction. Nonetheless, improved targeting and richer listing content can lift conversion without sacrificing retention, which would aid both revenue growth and margins.
Stock-price drivers this quarter
Three variables may influence the stock reaction post results. The first is margin resilience relative to high-60s to low-70s gross margin norms; operating discipline that offsets marketing and R&D investments could mitigate the projected EBIT loss of $20.31 million and support EPS near $0.40. The second is commentary on housing transaction pipelines—signals that new listings are trending higher and that buy-side intent is stabilizing could recalibrate investors’ 2026 recovery curve. The third is visibility into Mortgages, a smaller but strategic segment at $53.00 million last quarter; green shoots in purchase applications, or traction in marketplace and origination partnerships, would suggest optionality for revenue diversification if rates drift lower into the spring selling season.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent institutional previews, the majority stance is cautiously bullish, emphasizing resilient high-margin marketplace economics and improving operating leverage as housing activity normalizes. Analysts point to upside skew if advertiser budgets broaden and early-2026 demand signals hold through February and March, while also noting that execution against product roadmaps in Rentals can support outperformance versus the revenue estimate of $650.25 million. Selected views highlight that consensus EPS of $0.40 appears achievable assuming stable traffic and contained opex, and that the forecasted EBIT loss likely reflects reinvestment rather than structural pressure. The prevailing angle is that risk/reward tilts positive into February 10, 2026 Post Market, provided Residential conversion and Rentals monetization trends do not deteriorate.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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