**Soybean Meal:** On Thursday, CBOT soybeans showed little movement due to weak U.S. soybean export data and minor downward revisions to Brazil's soybean production estimates by some institutions. The USDA reported private exporters sold 264,000 tons of soybeans to China and 186,000 tons of corn and 226,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year. Cumulative sales to China this week reached 400,000 tons, while unknown destinations totaled 385,000 tons, all for 2025/2026 shipment. However, export sales remained sluggish, with net soybean sales for 2025/2026 at 696,000 tons as of last week, up from 511,000 tons the previous week but below last year's levels. Domestically, soybean meal prices continued to rebound, with nearby contracts outperforming deferred ones. Soybean meal rose more sharply than rapeseed meal. Market speculation about extended customs clearance times for imported soybeans fueled expectations of accelerated inventory drawdowns, driving soybean meal prices higher. Short-term trading is recommended.
**Vegetable Oils:** BMD palm oil edged higher on Thursday, tracking broader market strength. High-frequency data showed Malaysia’s palm oil exports for December 1–10 fell 15% month-on-month, while yields rose 7.24%, oil extraction rates dipped 0.07%, and production increased 6.87%. Diminished expectations of output cuts limited palm oil’s gains. U.S. soybean oil declined alongside crude oil, with additional pressure from biodiesel uncertainty and weak palm oil performance, prompting a shift to soybean meal. Domestically, vegetable oils extended gains, led by rapeseed oil, followed by palm and soybean oils. Rumors of rejected rapeseed oil shipments at some ports, coupled with structural support from Germany’s RED III legislation adjustments, boosted rapeseed oil prices. End-user demand remained sluggish, with weak procurement and muted seasonal winter consumption. Strategies include selling call options and short-term futures trading.
**Live Hogs:** Nearby hog futures weakened while deferred contracts held firmer on Thursday, with spot prices and disease concerns dragging nearby contracts to new lows. The July and September contracts saw limited declines. Spot prices were stronger in the north but weaker in the south. In Heilongjiang, hog prices rose to CNY 11.17/kg (+CNY 0.04), while Guangdong prices fell to CNY 12.21/kg (-CNY 0.20). The spread between standard (110–130 kg) and heavy (150+ kg) hogs widened negatively. Technically, deferred contracts showed resilience amid improving supply-demand expectations and bullish sentiment, supporting a light long position.
**Eggs:** Egg futures fluctuated on Thursday, with the January 2026 contract down 0.29% at CNY 3,144/500kg and the March contract up 0.13% at CNY 3,036/500kg. Spot prices edged up to CNY 3.10/jin (+CNY 0.04), though ample supply capped gains. Production areas like Ningjin saw pink-shell eggs at CNY 3.05/jin (+CNY 0.05), while Puxi and Guangzhou held steady. With slow supply declines anticipated, futures may consolidate; a wait-and-see approach is advised pending clearer signals.
**Corn:** Corn futures (March 2026) stabilized near the 20-day moving average, forming a small bullish candle. The January contract continued shedding positions to March. Spot prices in the northeast softened slightly, with improved but still-low farmer sales. North China processing plants saw stable-to-weak prices, while port traders cut offers by CNY 10/ton. Downstream buyers, well-stocked, showed little urgency. Technically, March and May contracts face resistance from mid-May levels, with weekly charts indicating limited upside. Light short-term longs are suggested, awaiting a breakout.
Comments