The liquor sector is showing signs of a long-awaited recovery as the Chinese New Year approaches. On one hand, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has surged rapidly in a short period, climbing back to around 1,700 yuan per bottle. On the other hand, the long-dormant A-share liquor segment witnessed a rare collective surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit-up and capital flooding in.
Simultaneously, institutional analysts have begun voicing optimistic views, with some calling it the "lowest point in a decade," while others boldly predict that Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. shares could rise by another 1,000 yuan. Confidence appears to be returning. However, the key question remains: do these signals indicate that the liquor industry has genuinely emerged from its downturn, or is this merely a short-term rally driven by seasonal demand and speculative trading?
Is the liquor industry recovering, as evidenced by Moutai’s simultaneous growth in volume and price? After a year-long decline in 2025, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai rebounded in January 2026. On January 29, the price rose by 100 yuan in a single day, reaching approximately 1,700 yuan. According to a February 8 wholesale reference price report, both the 2026 and 2025 Feitian Moutai batches saw across-the-board increases, with prices exceeding 1,700 yuan per bottle. Some retail stores have even raised prices to around 1,800 yuan.
Market research indicates that wholesale prices for other premium liquors, such as Qinghua Lang, Crystal Sword, and Xijiu Cellar 1988, have also risen by 2% to 10% compared to early January. Offline sales have also increased significantly. Some Moutai distributors have already sold out their January–February allocations, and March’s first batch of Feitian Moutai quotas has been pre-sold. One distributor reported a year-on-year sales increase of over 40% for Moutai. Other popular brands like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Honghualang have also seen substantial shipment growth.
On February 5, Langjiu held a national distributor video conference where General Manager Wang Bowei announced that the company’s January 2026 shipments hit a record high, with single-day sales reaching 270 million yuan. The rebound can be attributed to several factors: increased gift-giving demand ahead of the Spring Festival, and efforts by leading distilleries like Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. and Wuliangye to reduce inventory pressure on distributors by controlling supply.
Starting in 2026, Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. discontinued the distribution model for non-standard products and launched Feitian Moutai on the "i Moutai" platform, releasing pent-up demand. Official data shows that in January, the platform recorded over 2.12 million transactions, including 1.43 million for Feitian Moutai. Wuliangye also adjusted its strategy, lowering the opening price of its core product, the Eighth Generation Wuliangye, from 1,019 yuan to 900 yuan, effectively reducing financial pressure on distributors.
Junpin Xijiu limited its 2026 production to 4,000 tons and offered incentives like "buy 25 bottles, get 8 free" to lower effective costs. Beyond pricing and channel adjustments, major distilleries have also intensified promotional activities for the holiday season. For example, Fenjiu launched a campaign offering cash rewards for scanning bottle caps, while Luzhou Laojiao gave away gold bars as prizes. These efforts aim to boost actual consumption and reduce inventory.
However, the recovery is not uniform across the industry. Market research shows a clear polarization in sales: products priced between 100–200 yuan and above 800 yuan are selling well, while mid-range products priced between 300–600 yuan are struggling. A representative from a mid-tier brand warned of a potentially slow holiday season. Industry analysts suggest that "divergence" is a more accurate description than "recovery," as the market continues to face pressure while seeking structural opportunities.
Despite the stock market rally, corporate performance remains weak. As of February 10, nine listed liquor companies had released earnings forecasts, with four reporting losses and the other five seeing net profits decline by over 50%. Since the third quarter of 2025, liquor companies have experienced significant profit contractions. Industry challenges such as price stabilization, inventory reduction, and sales promotion persist.
So why did liquor stocks rebound suddenly? Analysts point to three main factors: stronger-than-expected pre-holiday demand, low valuations attracting buyers, and fund repositioning. However, the rally was short-lived, with stocks retreating in the following days, indicating ongoing market uncertainty. This suggests the surge was driven more by short-term speculation than fundamental improvement.
With the liquor sector having declined for nearly five years, valuations and institutional holdings are at historic lows. Public fund holdings of liquor stocks fell to 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025, nearing the bottom seen in 2015. Some prominent fund managers have reduced their exposure to the sector. For instance, Liu Yanchun, once a strong advocate for liquor stocks, has been cutting his positions, possibly due to performance pressure.
In contrast, another top fund manager, Zhang Kun, remains bullish, maintaining near-maximum allocations to Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd., Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao. He has expressed confidence in domestic consumption recovery. Notably, well-known investor Duan Yongping publicly stated that Moutai’s stock is reasonably priced from a long-term perspective. On January 27, he purchased 77,194 shares of Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. at prices between 1,329.72 and 1,331.00 yuan per share, investing a total of 103 million yuan. Within days, the stock rose over 17%, earning him paper gains exceeding 10 million yuan.
Several securities firms have also issued bullish forecasts, with some setting target prices as high as 2,600 yuan for Moutai. They cite strong demand on the i Moutai platform and ongoing reforms as positive factors. Overall, the current optimism in the liquor industry stems from a mix of policy expectations, seasonal trends, and low valuations. Whether this marks a true turning point will depend on actual holiday sales and broader economic recovery.
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