Analysis suggests that with support from continued central bank gold purchases, geopolitical tensions, and Federal Reserve easing expectations, the downside for gold is expected to be limited; for silver, which has seen significant gains earlier, the risk of sharp short-term fluctuations is high, and attention should be paid to controlling position risks; crude oil prices may continue to face downward pressure. Since the beginning of 2026, US military strikes against Venezuela triggered short-term safe-haven sentiment, driving a surge in precious metal prices including gold and silver, followed by a rapid pullback, while crude oil prices experienced a volatile decline. In response to the complex and volatile international situation and sharp fluctuations in metal varieties, the Shanghai Futures Exchange introduced multiple risk control measures on the evening of January 7 to strengthen supervision, and the SDIC Silver LOF was temporarily suspended again due to a high premium of 16%. By the close, the SDIC Silver LOF had fallen 2.53%, still maintaining a premium of over 13%. "Precious metals experienced a pullback after consecutive rallies, with intraday silver declines exceeding those of gold, driven by profit-taking from some investors and position reductions ahead of the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing," analyzed CITIC Futures in a research report on January 8. It is expected that with support from continued central bank gold buying, geopolitical tensions, and Fed easing bets, gold's downside may be limited. However, for silver, which has seen substantial gains, the risk of sharp short-term volatility is significant, necessitating careful control of position risk. "Gold is like an active volcano; its upward trend will erupt periodically, pause, and then continue," Li Xunlei, Chief Economist at Zhongtai International, stated. He remains long-term bullish on gold, with the core logic being rising global safe-haven demand and gold's anti-devaluation attributes against the backdrop of excessive currency issuance by central banks worldwide. However, as both gold and silver have exceeded expected gains, a short-term correction cannot be ruled out. Regarding crude oil, investor expectations for its supply and demand are relatively aligned. Geopolitical events may amplify the US's influence on global oil prices, while the policy direction of the Trump administration also leans towards lower oil prices, suggesting that crude oil prices may continue to face downward pressure.
Gold and silver experienced剧烈波动. Geopolitical conflict became the immediate trigger for short-term market volatility. During the New Year period, US military strikes against Venezuela, which is rich in gold and oil resources, triggered a rise in market避险情绪, with safe-haven funds rapidly flowing into the precious metals market. Since the start of the year, the maximum increase in spot London gold exceeded 4%, while spot London silver surged over 13%. The rally adjusted on January 7; by the time of writing on January 8, over two days, spot London gold had fallen less than 1.5% to $4,428 per ounce, while spot London silver's decline widened to nearly 7%, reaching $75 per ounce. In response to the significant volatility in the silver market, regulators acted swiftly. On the evening of January 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange intensively issued multiple risk control notices, introducing a combination of regulatory measures targeting the recently volatile metal futures market. These measures cover trading limits, margin requirements, daily price fluctuation limits, and transaction fees, aiming to curb excessive speculation and maintain stable market operation. Wang Yanqing, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at CSC Futures, stated that recently, speculative sentiment has noticeably intensified in the precious and non-ferrous metals markets, with行情 exhibiting high volatility and increased market risks. Although some品种 are supported by macroeconomic and fundamental positives, the rapid price increases may have already overextended long-term optimistic expectations, posing a potential threat to stable market operation. The measures taken by the SHFE aim to抑制过度投机, restore the price discovery function of futures, smooth abnormal market fluctuations, and maintain trading order, demonstrating the effectiveness and timeliness of its regulatory framework. On the product side, the SDIC Silver LOF, which still maintains a high premium, continued to implement temporary trading suspension warnings. After opening at 10:30 on January 8, the fund's price fell over 4% before partially recovering. By the close, the SDIC Silver LOF's on-market price was 2.5 yuan, still carrying a premium exceeding 13%. Despite the recent intensified volatility in precious metal prices, under the overarching logic of a weakening US dollar信用, the industry remains optimistic about the long-term investment value of gold and silver. International institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS have successively raised their gold price targets, with highs reaching $5,000 per ounce, generally看好黄金's long-term upward potential. A Guotai Haitong research report pointed out that rising global geopolitical uncertainty and continued gold purchases by central banks are favorable for supporting the long-term price center of gold. Although inflows of speculative trading funds have阶段性抬升了黄金's volatility center and suppressed its safe-haven attributes, against the backdrop of volatile global risk assets and high speculation on AI industry trends, gold prices still exhibit strong resilience. Huaan Fund believes that the Fed remains in a major rate-cutting cycle, and if a dovish chair is elected, the pace of Fed rate cuts could become more aggressive. Beyond宽松货币政策, the US is also in a phase of宽松财政政策, with US debt信用风险 persisting, continued central bank gold buying amid de-dollarization, and叠加 soaring global gold ETF investment demand, they remain看好2026黄金's allocation value. Wang Hua, a fund manager at Ping An Fund, has been consistently bullish on gold since 2023. He currently believes that gold may subsequently enter a缓慢上行通道. Wang Hua analyzed, "To date, gold has risen from $2,200 per ounce, achieving a doubling, which corresponds to the doubling expansion of US debt规模 in the past period. Therefore, at the current price level, we believe the period of rapid gold price increases has passed. Future gold price gains will depend on the pace of global debt expansion and changes in the geopolitical landscape." Regarding silver, CITIC Futures analysis suggests that short-term drivers for silver are converging with gold. Additionally, attention should be paid to the results of the US Section 232 investigation on silver in mid-January; the anticipated implementation of silver tariffs could become a key factor affecting subsequent physical spot market flows. "Currently, structural tightness in silver现货 persists; although silver leasing rates have retreated, they remain high, and the risk of a short squeeze is not entirely eliminated. Looking within the year, the trend of US dollar信用收缩 also provides underlying support for silver's price center, while expectations of the economic cycle轮动 towards温和复苏 could bring greater upward elasticity to silver, which has pro-cyclical attributes."
Crude oil prices may continue to face downward pressure. Following US military action against Venezuela, the market initially briefly pushed oil prices higher due to concerns about supply disruption. Subsequently, as the US and Venezuela reached an oil import agreement and expectations of global supply surplus strengthened, oil prices turned downward. The crude oil market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. By the time of writing on January 8, WTI crude oil prices had fallen approximately 3% since the start of the year, trading at $56.19 per barrel. "Given expectations of a severe supply surplus in 2026, particularly in the first quarter, the oil market's reaction to the blockade action has been relatively muted. With Maduro detained, the US might adjust its sanctions policy, rewarding cooperation with the Trump administration by allowing Venezuelan oil exports to US refineries," analyzed consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. This would quickly provide Venezuela with the dollar sources needed to support its national finances, enabling its production to rapidly recover to over 800,000 barrels per day and achieve an immediate boost in export value as onshore inventories are drawn down. However, the additional supply would only exacerbate an already oversupplied market, potentially driving Brent crude prices below the projected range of $50 to $55 per barrel for the first quarter of 2026. China Lianhe Credit Rating believes that following this military action, Venezuela's oil trade has been paralyzed, potentially leading to a further reduction in global oil supply, which would support international oil prices in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, the US may gradually relax energy export sanctions on Venezuela, expecting global oil supply to increase progressively, thereby exerting some downward pressure on oil prices. A Guotai Haitong research report also indicated that investor expectations for crude oil supply and demand are relatively consistent, and OPEC+'s production adjustment behavior has been relatively温和. South American geopolitical events might increase the US's influence on global oil prices, while the policy orientation of the Trump administration also leans towards lower oil prices. It is预计 that crude oil prices may continue to face downward pressure and could experience intense short-term博弈.
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