According to Woofun AI, Chamath Palihapitiya, founder of Social Capital, once issued a stark warning that Bitcoin could fall to zero dollars, with the core logic resting on the potentially devastating impact of quantum computers on existing cryptographic systems.
This extreme risk scenario is forcing the Bitcoin developer community into urgent action, attempting to build defensive barriers before quantum computing power matures. Currently, technical proposals for defending against quantum attacks have entered substantive discussion, but the complexity of implementation far exceeds the code itself, involving the reshaping of network-wide consensus and the secure migration of existing assets. If a systematic upgrade cannot be completed before the threat materializes, Bitcoin's value foundation will face fundamental destabilization; conversely, if a quantum-resistant trust mechanism is successfully established, it could become a key variable reshaping market valuations.
Two Core Proposals: BIP-360 and BIP-361
On the 26th, digital asset industry insiders revealed that the defense system against quantum threats is being advanced through two core improvement proposals, namely BIP-360 and BIP-361. Both proposals are currently in draft stage and have not yet been deployed on the mainnet, but their technical paths clearly point toward eliminating public key exposure risks.
To understand the urgency, one must trace back to Bitcoin's key mechanism: private keys are used to sign transactions, while public keys are generated from private keys and used to verify signatures. In a traditional computing environment, deriving a private key from a public key is mathematically infeasible; however, quantum computers, with their ability to solve specific mathematical problems, are expected to break this equilibrium by reverse-engineering private keys from exposed public keys.
BIP-360 and the P2MR Approach
BIP-360 was co-authored by developers including Hunter Beast, Ethan Heilman, and Isabel Foxen Duke, and aims to introduce a new transaction output method called "P2MR." The core logic of this proposal is to restructure the TapRoot mechanism, removing functional modules that cause public keys to persist on the blockchain for extended periods, thereby compressing the analysis window available to attackers. Notably, BIP-360 alone cannot completely eliminate the risk, because at the moment of transaction execution, public keys are still briefly exposed. Therefore, the industry widely believes that a new type of digital signature technology specifically designed to resist quantum attacks must also be introduced to fill this security vacuum.
Woofun AI data shows that community discussion around the P2MR proposal has significantly increased, reflecting developers' urgent need to reduce public key exposure duration.
BIP-361: The Consensus Dilemma and Asset Migration Challenge
Compared to the technical difficulty of implementation, the consensus dilemma and asset migration challenges facing BIP-361 are even more formidable. This proposal, put forward by developers including Jameson Lopp, focuses on addressing the handling of existing assets after new security technologies are deployed. Its core strategies include: after quantum-resistant transaction methods are established, restricting the behavior of sending Bitcoin back to original vulnerable addresses, and gradually phasing out traditional digital signature methods. This process requires exchanges, custody service providers, and individual wallet users to comprehensively update their software to adapt to new address formats. However, large-scale asset migration could trigger a surge in network transaction volume, thereby testing network throughput.
The deeper contradiction lies with those long-dormant Bitcoins — assets that cannot be moved due to lost private keys or the death of their owners. If they cannot be migrated to quantum-resistant addresses, they will become clear targets for quantum attacks; but if their use is forcibly restricted, it could trigger legal and ethical disputes over ownership determination. Furthermore, Bitcoin's decentralized nature means that any protocol change requires acceptance by miners, node operators, and various participants. This distributed decision-making mechanism makes reaching consensus extremely costly and time-consuming.
Market Sentiment and the Price Variable
Market sentiment is treating the security upgrade as a key variable affecting price. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, predicted in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine that if developers can reach consensus on a specific roadmap for quantum-resistant digital signature technology within the next 12 to 18 months, Bitcoin's price could rise by 30% to 50% in a single day. This judgment is based on logical deduction: once the uncertainty brought by the quantum threat is eliminated, the risk premium that previously suppressed valuations will be rapidly released, and investor psychological expectations will improve accordingly. Although the technical proposals are not yet mature and have not entered practical application, a clear transition plan alone can boost confidence.
The key variable for the future lies in whether the community can complete the verification of new security technologies and drive network-wide transformation before quantum computers possess actual attack capabilities. This is not just a technological race, but the ultimate test of whether Bitcoin can continue its value storage properties in the quantum era.
Comments