Title
Earning Preview: Instacart, Inc. (Maplebear Inc.) Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 9.28%, and institutional views are bullish
Abstract
Instacart, Inc. (Maplebear Inc.) will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 12, 2026 Post Market, and this preview summarizes consensus expectations for revenue of $973.71 million and adjusted EPS of $0.53 alongside the operational factors most likely to shape results and investor reaction.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, the market framework points to revenue of $973.71 million, up 9.28% year over year, adjusted EPS of $0.53, up 39.75% year over year, and EBIT of $172.23 million, up 32.42% year over year. Based on the cadence exiting the prior period and seasonal uplift into year-end, the revenue projection of $973.71 million reflects expectations for high single-digit growth with operating leverage contained within EPS and EBIT.
Transactions remains the core revenue engine with $670.00 million last quarter and typically benefits from holiday order frequency and larger baskets; expectations center on volume resilience and a stable take rate translating into a high single-digit top-line expansion this quarter. Advertising and other, which delivered $269.00 million last quarter, is seen as the most promising contributor to margin expansion as campaign intensity and on-platform engagement lift monetization during the peak shopping period.
Last Quarter Review
Instacart, Inc. (Maplebear Inc.) posted revenue of $939.00 million (+10.21% year over year), a gross profit margin of 73.70%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $144.00 million, a net profit margin of 15.34%, and adjusted EPS of $0.51 (+21.43% year over year).
Net profit increased by 24.14% quarter on quarter. Within the revenue mix, core marketplace transactions contributed $670.00 million and advertising and other contributed $269.00 million, while company revenue grew 10.21% year over year and EBIT reached $166.00 million (+20.29% year over year).
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Marketplace and Transaction Revenue
The core marketplace underpins the revenue base and is closely tied to platform order volumes and average basket size. The current quarter captures the holiday period, which typically concentrates more baskets per active user and a richer item mix, supporting higher gross transaction value and associated transaction revenue. Given the previous quarter’s 10.21% year-over-year revenue growth, a high single-digit revenue increase to $973.71 million for this quarter implies steady order frequency combined with balanced service and delivery fee dynamics rather than aggressive fee-driven growth.
Take-rate stability is a central assumption embedded in the revenue forecast. If customer fee levels and retailer economics remain in alignment, the translation from gross transaction value into revenue should remain consistent with the recent trend. The operational lens this quarter will therefore focus on order frequency, new and reactivated customer cohorts, and fulfillment throughput, as these determine the scale available to absorb fixed and semi-variable costs and ultimately sustain operating leverage.
Engagement around peak shopping periods can also shift mix toward higher-value baskets, raising the average order value and supporting transaction revenue without requiring significant changes to fees. A smooth experience for end customers and retail partners—such as reliable delivery windows and adequate shopper supply—can reduce cancellations and credits, which protects effective take rate. Management’s ability to balance promotional intensity for acquisition with unit economics is critical to preserving the strong gross profit margin profile seen last quarter at 73.70%.
Advertising and Other
Advertising and other revenue of $269.00 million last quarter underlines the increasingly important role this segment plays in expanding the blended monetization of the platform. As advertisers allocate budget to capture peak-season demand, sponsored placements and performance-driven campaigns tend to scale with traffic and transaction intent, creating incremental revenue that carries a higher margin profile than core transactions. The result is a larger contribution to both gross margin and operating income, which aligns with the current quarter’s expectation for EPS growth of 39.75% year over year and EBIT growth of 32.42% year over year.
The sustainability of advertising momentum depends on maintaining a predictable return on ad spend for brands and retailers. Enhancements in measurement, targeting, and tools that enable self-serve campaign management can deepen advertiser adoption while minimizing friction. When paired with growing shopper and consumer engagement during the quarter, ad inventory can be sold at healthy effective rates without oversaturating the consumer experience. This is a key lever for maintaining the 73.70% gross margin level, as ad revenue generally requires less variable cost per dollar than marketplace transactions.
Seasonal engagement can also highlight newer ad formats and integrations that align to product discovery and conversion. Incremental signal quality from high-intent shopping behavior typically strengthens campaign outcomes, reinforcing budgets through the period. This dynamic contributes to the consensus profile of revenue growing 9.28% year over year while EPS grows meaningfully faster, as the mix shift toward advertising compresses unit cost intensity and expands profitability.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The first stock-price driver is revenue growth versus profitability tradeoffs. With consensus revenue at $973.71 million (+9.28% year over year) and adjusted EPS at $0.53 (+39.75% year over year), investors will parse whether EPS outperformance is driven by sustainable mix and leverage or by short-term cost deferrals. Evidence of stronger ad contribution and normalized customer acquisition costs would support a constructive view on earnings quality.
The second driver is margin trajectory, particularly the interaction between gross margin and operating expenses. Last quarter’s 73.70% gross margin provides a high starting point, and any improvement in ad mix could push margins higher, but opex flexibility will influence drop-through to EBIT, which is projected at $172.23 million (+32.42% year over year). Clear signals on unit economics—such as fulfillment cost per order and customer credit rate—will be watched closely as these feed directly into net profit margin, which stood at 15.34% last quarter.
A third driver is the health of the revenue mix and cohort engagement. As core transactions delivered $670.00 million and advertising and other delivered $269.00 million last quarter, the balance of volume growth and monetization impacts the repeat rates and retention that underpin long-term LTV. In the context of a holiday-heavy quarter, the conversion of new sign-ups into repeat usage and the effectiveness of paid marketing will likely influence views on 2026 growth continuity. A favorable mix shift alongside steady marketplace performance would validate the high single-digit revenue trajectory and reinforce the durability implied by the upward EPS estimate.
Analyst Opinions
The balance of recent published views since January 01, 2026 skews bullish, with buy recommendations outweighing bearish calls. In January 2026, Bernstein reiterated a Buy rating on Instacart, Inc. (Maplebear Inc.) with a $50.00 price target, signaling confidence in the company’s earnings power through more profitable revenue mix and disciplined execution. The bullish stance emphasizes that the company is positioned to translate holiday demand into outsized bottom-line gains relative to top-line growth, consistent with consensus calling for EPS of $0.53 (+39.75% year over year) on revenue of $973.71 million (+9.28% year over year).
Bulls point to the blend of high-margin advertising and improving operating leverage as the central thesis into this print. With last quarter’s gross margin at 73.70% and net margin at 15.34%, an incremental tilt toward advertising and other revenue can further enhance profitability without requiring aggressive fee actions on the marketplace side. The forecast for EBIT of $172.23 million (+32.42% year over year) underpins this view, as advertising revenue typically features a lower variable cost profile and scales well with seasonal traffic, supporting margin expansion.
The positive camp also underscores the trajectory of adjusted EPS relative to revenue. The pattern of EPS growth ahead of revenue growth, evident in the outlook, suggests a more efficient translation of volume into earnings. This is consistent with last quarter’s 21.43% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS and 10.21% year-over-year revenue growth, coupled with a 24.14% quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit. If these relationships hold in the current quarter, the result would validate the thesis that the business model is deriving increasing benefits from mix and scale.
From a revenue composition perspective, bulls emphasize the importance of maintaining transaction stability while expanding advertising yield. The prior quarter’s $670.00 million in transactions and $269.00 million in advertising and other provides a baseline that, if advanced by seasonal shopping behavior and advertiser demand, can reinforce revenue reliability and earnings durability. This blended approach mitigates the need to push up consumer fees, helping protect engagement metrics that feed back into order frequency and ad effectiveness.
In sum, the prevailing bullish view anticipates that Instacart, Inc. (Maplebear Inc.) can deliver a quarter in which high single-digit revenue growth converts into substantially faster EPS growth, supported by fortified gross margins and rising ad penetration. Should the company meet or exceed the revenue estimate of $973.71 million while demonstrating further leverage in EBIT and EPS, the thesis that profitability is compounding faster than sales would be reinforced. That outcome would align with the direction implied by Bernstein’s Buy rating and would frame the path for continued earnings improvement into 2026.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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