In the futures market, a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions and a broad rally in US tech stocks propelled the London Metal Exchange tin contract higher overnight, closing up 2.54%. The latest settlement price stood at $55,350 per tonne, a gain of $1,370. Trading volume was 762 lots with open interest at 214.48 million lots. In the domestic market, the main Shanghai tin futures contract for July 2026 (2607) closed the night session at 424,120 yuan per tonne, up 6,340 yuan, or 1.52%.
LME tin inventories on June 15th were 8,775 tonnes, down 75 tonnes from the previous trading day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network reports: Shanghai tin futures opened broadly higher today. The main July 2026 (2607) contract opened at 427,010 yuan per tonne, up 9,230 yuan from the previous day's close. As of 9:15 AM, the contract was quoted at 422,200 yuan per tonne, up 4,420 yuan, or 1.06%. After the high open, Shanghai tin futures traded within a narrow range. On the macro front, the implementation of the US-Iran peace agreement has significantly eased Middle East geopolitical tensions. This, coupled with a weaker US dollar and a strong rally in US tech stocks, has led to a rapid recovery in market risk appetite, with funds continuing to flow back into the commodity markets. LME tin led gains in the base metals sector. As a core soldering metal for semiconductors, it directly benefits from the rising demand in the AI computing power sector. The follow-through gain in domestic Shanghai tin was relatively cautious, as high prices are dampening essential procurement from downstream users. Smelting supply remains stable, inventories are not tight, spot market transactions are subdued, and there is a lack of fundamental support for sustained, sharp upward movement.
Comprehensive Supply and Demand Dynamics
A pattern of tightness in ore supply persists, with recycled tin becoming a key supplementary source. The divergence in raw material supply continues. High-quality global resources of cassiterite and alluvial tin deposits are depleting, while the release of associated stannite production capacity is constrained. Restoration progress in Myanmar's Wa State has only reached 40-50% of pre-suspension levels, with the rainy season further hampering mining and transportation. China's tin ore imports from Myanmar in April fell by over 20% month-on-month. Indonesia's increase in mining taxes and export controls have tightened the overall supply of primary tin concentrate. Supply of recycled tin raw materials is relatively stable and has become an important supplement for the smelting sector. However, the volume of scrap recovery is constrained by the pace of consumption recovery, limiting its potential for significant growth. Across the industry chain, upstream miners' bargaining power continues to strengthen, putting pressure on smelters' profit margins. Downstream demand from AI and semiconductors remains robust, while demand from traditional consumer electronics and the photovoltaic sector is experiencing a moderate recovery.
Macro Outlook and Price Forecast
Today's international macro focus will be on speeches from Federal Reserve officials, further developments in the US-Iran agreement, and signals from the European Central Bank regarding interest rate hikes. In the short term, after being boosted higher by macro catalysts, tin prices need to absorb downstream resistance to high prices. They are expected to maintain a pattern of high-level consolidation. In the medium to long term, rigid contraction in ore supply combined with the continuous expansion of AI computing power demand provides underlying momentum for the tin price center to shift higher. Strategically, it is advisable to position on price pullbacks and avoid chasing rallies at elevated levels.
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