Gf Securities released a research report highlighting that China's 15th Five-Year Plan has identified hydrogen energy as a future industry, signaling policy efforts to expand application scenarios and tackle core technologies, ultimately achieving coordinated and leapfrog development across the entire industrial chain. Currently, multiple measures are being implemented to enhance renewable energy consumption, with wind-solar hydrogen-ammonia-methanol production emerging as a key focus, particularly offshore wind-to-hydrogen and photovoltaic-to-hydrogen projects. Additionally, green ammonia, traditionally a basic chemical feedstock, is gaining traction as a fuel alternative. Green methanol, a renewable variant with diverse production pathways, has seen intensive deployment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. As green electricity costs decline, green methanol is poised to become a vital decarbonization option, finding broad applications in transportation and chemical sectors.
**Key Insights from Gf Securities:** 1. **Policy Support Accelerates Hydrogen Industry’s Shift to Scale** The hydrogen energy sector is at a pivotal juncture, transitioning from pilot demonstrations to large-scale development. This shift is driven by consistent and targeted policies, including the 2022 *Medium- and Long-Term Plan for Hydrogen Energy Industry Development*, which outlined strategic positioning and top-level design. The 2024 *Implementation Plan for Accelerating Clean and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Applications in Industry* further focuses on industrial demand to stimulate growth. The 15th Five-Year Plan’s designation of hydrogen as a future industry underscores efforts to expand applications and advance core technologies.
2. **Wind-Solar Hydrogen-Ammonia-Methanol Takes Center Stage** Under carbon neutrality goals, onshore and offshore wind-to-hydrogen projects are critical for green hydrogen production. Onshore projects in resource-rich regions like Northwest and North China are progressing toward commercialization, addressing curtailment issues while supplying green hydrogen. The Zhangjiakou Chongli project exemplifies stable hydrogen supply. Offshore wind-to-hydrogen mitigates grid integration challenges, enhances utilization, and decarbonizes the hydrogen value chain. Photovoltaic-to-hydrogen projects, such as the Kuqa initiative in Xinjiang, have achieved industrial-scale deployment, with new projects like State Power Investment’s Daan and Envision’s Chifeng marking industry milestones.
3. **Green Methanol Gains Traction in Shipping Decarbonization** IMO’s 2050 net-zero emissions target for international shipping has spurred demand for green methanol as an alternative fuel. Clarksons’ 2024 data shows methanol-fueled vessels accounting for 22.4% of new energy ship orders, second only to LNG (24% emission reduction). Green methanol, with 90% CO2 reduction potential, offers automated supply systems and stable engine performance, making it ideal for zero-emission shipping.
4. **Green Ammonia and Methanol: Expanding Industrial Applications** Green ammonia’s dual role as a chemical feedstock and fuel is bolstered by decarbonization policies, with domestic production projected to exceed 70% by 2050. Green methanol’s cost competitiveness is expected to rise with declining green electricity costs, enabling widespread adoption in transport and chemicals.
**Investment Recommendations:** - Focus on **Goldwind Science & Technology (002202.SZ)**, **Foran Energy Group (002911.SZ)**, **Hemei Group (002356.SZ)**, and **Jilin Electric Power (000875.SZ)**. - Key hydrogen subsectors: - **Production**: Huaguang Environment (600475.SH), Huadian Engineering (601226.SH), Donghua Technology (002140.SZ), Aerospace Engineering (603698.SH). - **Refueling Stations**: Moon Environment (000811.SZ), Binghan Refrigeration (000530.SZ), Snowman Group (002639.SZ). - **Fuel Cells**: SinoHytec (688339.SH), Naer (002825), Compton (603798.SH), Weifu High-Tech (000581.SZ).
**Risks:** Policy delays, slower-than-expected technological advancements, and intensified electrolyzer price competition.
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