Copper
Copper prices on both domestic and international exchanges showed a mixed but slightly stronger trend overnight, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining in a loss-making state. Former President Trump demanded compensation from Iran and included it in all future negotiations, claiming the U.S. military has "100% control" of the Strait of Hormuz, casting a shadow over U.S.-Iran talks. In terms of inventories, LME stocks decreased by 4,675 tons to 218,300 tons; Comex stocks increased by 2,754 tons to 658,509 tons; SHFE copper warrants increased by 75 tons to 23,052 tons, while BC copper warrants increased by 300 tons to 7,503 tons. On the demand side, downstream buyers maintained rigid procurement, with weak willingness to stockpile at high prices. Changes in copper supply and inventory levels are the primary drivers of this price rally, suggesting a fundamentals-led environment with a stronger capital influence. The sustained premium of U.S. copper over LME copper indicates that the absorption of overseas copper by the U.S. continues unabated, which could lead to extreme tightness in non-U.S. regions globally. Driven by capital flows, reflected in increased open interest both domestically and internationally, copper prices may continue to show short-term strength. Attention should be paid to the performance of LME near historical highs. The key risk remains U.S. tariff policy on refined copper. If tariff expectations persist, copper prices could rally further; if tariffs are not imposed, the downside risk is significant.
Nickel & Stainless Steel
LME nickel fell 0.15% to $16,945 per ton overnight, while Shanghai nickel dropped 0.42% to 129,220 yuan per ton. In terms of inventories, LME stocks held steady at 264,444 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 261 tons to 100,656 tons. Regarding premiums, the LME 0-3 month spread remained negative; the import nickel premium held at -50 yuan per ton. On the news front, a rumor circulated on August 6 that PT Weda Bay Nickel, one of Indonesia's largest nickel ore suppliers, had received approval for an additional RKAB quota of approximately 25 million wet metric tons in the second half of 2026. However, on August 7, the Director General of Minerals stated that WBN had indeed submitted a 25 million ton supplementary application to the Ministry of Energy, but an application does not equal approval, and as of August 6, no approval had been granted. Companies can freely submit large incremental applications, but Indonesia adheres to mineral resource controls and will not casually approve large-scale quota expansions. The online rumor prematurely characterizing the application as "approved" is false. Regarding August production schedules, primary nickel output is expected to decline slightly month-on-month, while domestic and international nickel pig iron and nickel sulfate output are expected to increase. On the demand side, production schedules for new energy vehicles and stainless steel are both expected to increase month-on-month. Overseas inventories continue to decline, while domestic weekly inventories show a slight accumulation. Quota risks cap the upside potential for prices. Focus should be on other companies' quota volumes and macro sentiment influences.
Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys
Alumina prices fluctuated slightly lower overnight, with the AO2609 contract closing at 2,683 yuan per ton, down 0.59%. Open interest increased by 1,248 lots to 152,000 lots. Aluminum prices showed a slightly stronger trend, with LME closing at $3,317 per ton, up 1.14%, while inventories decreased by 1,500 tons to 255,000 tons. The AL2609 contract closed at 24,190 yuan per ton, up 0.64%, with open interest increasing by 949 lots to 242,000 lots. Aluminum alloy prices fluctuated slightly higher, with the main AD2610 contract closing at 23,560 yuan per ton, up 0.28%. Open interest increased by 230 lots to 19,187 lots. In the spot market, SMM alumina prices fell to 2,696 yuan per ton. The discount on aluminum ingot spot prices widened to 30 yuan per ton. Foshan A00 quotes rebounded to 24,150 yuan per ton, while Wuxi A00 quotes showed a discount of 190 yuan per ton. Aluminum rod processing fees were stable in most regions, while processing fees for aluminum bars in Xinjiang and Guangdong were adjusted down by 20 yuan per ton. Processing fees for the 1A60 series of aluminum rods remained stable, while those for the 6/8 series were stable, and low-carbon 6/8 series processing fees increased by 72 yuan per ton. As domestic and international production restarts and expansions coincide, import arrivals remain at high levels, leading to continued accumulation in social inventories and warrants. With the increase in long-term contract prices for Guinea bauxite and domestic coal price volatility in Shanxi, the cost base for alumina has risen. Additionally, new electrolytic aluminum projects are building raw material inventories, and inland aluminum smelters are increasing their intake of Southwest alumina. Current spot prices have not followed the futures market higher, and the futures market is gradually bottoming out. In the electrolytic aluminum sector, signs of a potential ceasefire from Trump have eased macro risk appetite, leading to a recovery in non-ferrous metals. Both domestic and international inventories are decreasing, but the pace of destocking is slowing. Geopolitical premiums are facing two-way pressure, and aluminum prices are likely to trade in a range.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon
Industrial silicon prices fluctuated slightly higher on the 10th, with the main 2609 contract closing at 8,580 yuan per ton, up 0.53% intraday, while open interest decreased by 12,161 lots to 173,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,071 yuan per ton, up 21 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The lowest deliverable grade price fell to 8,550 yuan per ton, shifting from a spot parity to a premium of 35 yuan per ton. Polysilicon prices fluctuated slightly lower, with the main 2609 contract closing at 36,390 yuan per ton, while open interest decreased by 12,083 lots to 81,400 lots. The lowest deliverable grade price fell to 36,800 yuan per ton, shifting from a spot premium to a discount of 200 yuan per ton. Large-scale furnace shutdowns have occurred in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Sichuan. Despite weak demand, destocking efforts by producers have had limited effectiveness. In the short term, industrial silicon prices are expected to move sideways, awaiting the recovery in downstream demand during the peak season. The current dynamics of the polysilicon industry have become a market focus. On one hand, Trump announced tariffs on polysilicon and its derivative products. On the other hand, the State Administration for Market Regulation is conducting price compliance guidance for the photovoltaic industry, and eight major polysilicon companies have jointly signed a proposal to strictly adhere to energy consumption standards and not sell below cost prices. The underlying fundamental pressure remains, as terminal production schedules for August have not yet shown significant increases, and industry inventories have not seen substantial destocking. In the short term, polysilicon prices are subject to a volatile rhythm of news confirmation or denial, with market sentiment still in a tug-of-war phase. The risk of high price volatility remains, and a cautious approach is recommended.
Lithium Carbonate
Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2609 rose 2.87% to 146,360 yuan per ton, with a reduction in open interest of 19,531 lots to 271,900 lots. The LC2701 contract rose 3.51% to 145,800 yuan per ton, with an increase in open interest of 5,541 lots to 220,500 lots. In the spot market, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,750 yuan per ton to 144,500 yuan per ton, while the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,750 yuan per ton to 139,500 yuan per ton. Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 2,000 yuan per ton to 133,000 yuan per ton. In terms of warrants, warrant inventory increased by 1,748 tons to 31,621 tons. On the news front, on August 10, Sinomine Resource Group announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangxi Sinomine Lithium Industry, had temporarily suspended production at two high-purity lithium salt production lines for maintenance starting June 30 due to a mismatch between lithium concentrate transportation and production scheduling. The maintenance has now been completed, and the company's self-produced lithium concentrate has arrived at the plant, allowing for the resumption of production. The "annual 30,000 tons high-purity lithium salt" production line resumed production on August 10, and the "annual 35,000 tons high-purity lithium salt" production line is scheduled to gradually resume production in mid-August. On the supply side, weekly output increased by 130 tons to 22,971 tons, and August lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 7% month-on-month to 112,000 tons. On the demand side, ternary material production is expected to increase by 5% month-on-month to 93,840 tons, lithium iron phosphate production by 5% to 565,100 tons, lithium cobalt oxide production by 4% to 7,380 tons, and lithium manganese oxide production by 11% to 11,920 tons. Lithium battery production is expected to increase by 7% month-on-month to 288.9 GWh. On the inventory side, large-sample weekly inventories decreased by 6,773 tons to 101,104 tons, with other sector inventories falling by 4,017 tons to 42,025 tons, smelter inventories increasing by 1,298 tons to 15,640 tons, and downstream inventories decreasing by 4,054 tons to 43,439 tons. Market sentiment has somewhat recovered, but a fundamental improvement in supply and demand is not yet evident. The problem with bearish long-term expectations is that they cannot be easily falsified, especially given the continuous inventory buildup in the battery sector this year without corresponding installation, which will further increase pressure. Furthermore, from the perspective of overall market sentiment, the correlation between lithium mining stocks and commodities is significant and shows a front-running characteristic, which is an important indicator to track going forward. This may provide more feedback on whether the prevailing bearish long-term view is weakening.
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