The 2025 global precious metals market concluded with a spectacular rally, with the gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures markets collectively experiencing a historically rare, broad-based "bull market." Among them, silver and platinum saw annual peak gains exceeding 170%. Prices for gold, silver, and platinum simultaneously broke through historical peaks, demonstrating strong upward momentum. By examining the price performance characteristics of domestic and international gold, silver, and platinum throughout 2025 and specifically in December, this analysis delves into the core drivers behind the substantial price surge in December and offers a forecast for the January 2026 market. Investors are reminded that precious metals prices have entered a historically high range; it is suggested that in January 2026, after a significant correction across the four precious metal varieties, a strategy of gradually buying on dips should be prioritized.
Throughout 2025, the precious metals market displayed a pattern of broad-based gains, with gold, silver, and platinum all surpassing their historical peaks. Silver and platinum notably outperformed gold in terms of price appreciation, reflecting the dual drivers of supply-demand fundamentals and capital rotation.
Table 1: Full-Year Gain Statistics for the Global Precious Metals Market as of December 29, 2025 [Table content indicating price changes for SHFE Gold, COMEX Gold, SHFE Silver, COMEX Silver, GFEX Platinum, NYMEX Platinum with respective currencies and percentages]
Note: 1. The above data is as of December 29, 2025, representing the final closing prices for the year. 2. GFEX Platinum data is from the Guangzhou Futures Exchange; NYMEX Platinum data is from the New York Mercantile Exchange. 3. The last trading day of 2024 was December 30, 2024.
Table 2: Full-Year Gain Statistics for the Global Precious Metals Market as of December 31, 2025 [Table content indicating price changes for SHFE Gold, COMEX Gold, SHFE Silver, COMEX Silver, GFEX Platinum, NYMEX Platinum, NYMEX Palladium with respective currencies and percentages]
Note: 1. The above data is as of December 31, 2025, representing the final closing prices for the year. 2. GFEX Platinum data is from the Guangzhou Futures Exchange; NYMEX Platinum data is from the New York Mercantile Exchange. 3. The last trading day of 2024 was December 30, 2024.
In December 2025, the global precious metals rally accelerated further, with silver and platinum in particular experiencing explosive growth. Their single-month gains far exceeded those of gold, highlighting the resonance effect between market sentiment and supply-demand gaps.
[Table content showing December 2025 price changes for SHFE Gold, COMEX Gold, SHFE Silver, COMEX Silver, GFEX Platinum, NYMEX Platinum]
Note: 1. The first trading day of December 2025 was December 2. 2. The December gains for silver and platinum were significantly higher than for gold, reflecting a strong resonance between physical scarcity and speculative sentiment. 3. Data source: Wind Financial Terminal, Tonghuashun Financial Database.
The comprehensive surge in precious metals prices throughout 2025 and particularly in the final month resulted from the combined effect of multiple factors: global liquidity easing, tight supply-demand dynamics, escalating geopolitical risks, and resonant market sentiment. While the specific rationales for different metals varied, the core drivers were highly aligned, primarily across seven aspects. First, global liquidity easing and strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts laid the foundation for the broad-based rally. Anticipation of a shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy intensified from September to December 2025, with widespread market expectations for the start of a rate-cutting cycle. This pushed real interest rates lower, significantly enhancing the appeal of holding non-yielding assets like gold, silver, and platinum. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar index plummeted nearly 10% for the year, providing a direct boost to dollar-denominated precious metals prices and offering macro liquidity support for the global rally. Second, structurally tight supply-demand fundamentals drove the leading gains in silver and platinum. On the supply side, South Africa, a core producer of platinum, faced challenges like aging mines and power shortages, severely constraining output. The global platinum market experienced a significant deficit for the third consecutive year, with the shortfall estimated at 22 tonnes. In the silver market, high lease rates in London indicated structural physical shortages. On the demand side, silver saw robust demand from industrial sectors like photovoltaics and electronics. Platinum benefited from growing demand in green energy areas such as automotive catalysts, hydrogen, and fuel cells. Coupled with substitution demand triggered by high gold prices, the supply-demand gap widened further, propelling price elasticity for both metals far beyond that of gold. Third, global central bank gold buying and de-dollarization trends provided structural support. Global central banks were net purchasers of gold for the third consecutive year, exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually. China increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, providing solid structural support for gold prices. Amid de-dollarization trends, the value of precious metals as strategic reserve assets became prominent. Gold ETF holdings increased by over 2.86 tonnes in December alone, indicating strong institutional demand, which also spurred capital rotation into relatively undervalued metals like silver and platinum. India and Russia successively included silver in their central bank strategic reserves, alongside gold and platinum group metals. In December 2025, the Reserve Bank of India allowed silver ornaments and coins to be used as collateral for loans, placing them on par with gold. Fourth, persistent geopolitical conflict risks fueled safe-haven demand. Ongoing tensions, such as a month-long U.S. military buildup off the coast of Venezuela, continued turmoil in the Middle East, the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict, and conflicts in Southeast Asia like Thailand-Cambodia, drove significant safe-haven capital into precious metals. Particularly in late December, after gold broke through the key psychological barrier of $4,500 per ounce, market避险 sentiment intensified further, accelerating the simultaneous rise in silver and platinum. Fifth, market sentiment and speculative behavior amplified the upward momentum. After global precious metals prices broke through historical highs, a strong "fear of missing out" mentality took hold, with investors普遍 holding onto their positions, leading to a cooling recycling market. Simultaneously, purchase limits imposed by some precious metal ETFs due to position limits further exacerbated market imbalances. The concentrated influx of speculative capital also magnified price volatility, contributing to the explosive rise in silver and platinum during December. Sixth, a declining U.S. dollar index propelled the rebound in international precious metals prices. The dollar index, which measures the USD against a basket of currencies, fell significantly. A weaker dollar directly enhances the attractiveness of dollar-denominated gold, silver, and platinum. In 2025, the dollar index fell by 9%, showing a significant negative correlation with precious metals prices. Fed rate cuts triggered capital outflows; the Fed cut rates by a cumulative 75 basis points in 2025, and the dollar index dropped from 98.2 at the start of the year to 89.1 by year-end. Global de-dollarization efforts saw many central banks diversifying reserves away from USD assets. The U.S. trade deficit as a percentage of GDP rose to 3.2% in 2025, reflecting weaker dollar demand and further pressuring the index. Dollar depreciation enhanced the safe-haven attributes of precious metals, attracting global investors to increase holdings. Seventh, low global precious metals inventories, both futures and physical, concentrated flow to the U.S. Throughout 2025, inventories at the three major global precious metals futures exchanges remained persistently low, especially for silver. Compounding this, a significant flow of both futures and physical resources concentrated in the U.S. market during December, exposing the structural矛盾 between the "financial attribute" and the "inventory crisis" in global precious metals. This created a classic short squeeze scenario, which ultimately triggered a sharp correction globally at the end of December after U.S. futures exchanges raised margin requirements.
Looking ahead to January 2026, the global precious metals market is likely to continue its pattern of high volatility, but upward momentum may slow, with significantly increased fluctuation risks. Different metal varieties may exhibit divergent trends. Gold: High Volatility, Awaiting Guidance from Rate Cut Signals. Without clear signals on the Fed's rate-cut path, gold lacks the strong impetus for a sustained unilateral rally and is expected to trade within a range around $4,500 per ounce. If U.S. economic data like PCE and non-farm payrolls show weakening resilience, bolstering rate cut expectations, gold prices could challenge higher levels like $4,800 per ounce. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could trigger a阶段性 correction. Silver: High Elasticity Continues, but Correction Risks Intensify. Silver, possessing both industrial demand and financial attributes, retains high price elasticity, supported by potentially better-than-expected photovoltaic installations. However, caution is warranted as December's substantial gains have created technical overbought pressure, making short-term correction risks non-negligible. Silver is expected to experience wide fluctuations at high levels in January, likely with greater amplitude than gold, primarily oscillating within a $60-$85 per ounce range. Platinum: Supply-Deficit Supports Strength, but Beware of Profit-Taking. The tight supply-demand situation for platinum is difficult to resolve short-term, with demand growth in green energy sectors providing long-term support. It is expected to maintain a strong pattern in January. However, given the over 40% gain in December alone, some speculative funds may choose to take profits. Combined with its relatively limited liquidity, price volatility risk is high, warranting vigilance for阶段性 corrections.
Risk Warning. A rebound in U.S. inflation leading to delayed Fed rate cuts, an unexpected easing of geopolitical tensions, or a global liquidity tightening could trigger a阶段性 deep correction in the precious metals market. Among them, silver and platinum, due to their substantial prior gains and higher volatility, could experience significantly larger corrections than gold. In late December 2025, the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) raised margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures twice to counter extreme squeeze and surge risks. The first increase took effect after the close on December 29, and the second after the close on December 31. This directly triggered a stampede of high-leverage position unwinding, causing single-day price drops of 4-17% and rapidly cooling the squeeze sentiment in U.S. precious metals futures. The CME's two margin hikes, by increasing trading costs and reducing leverage, successfully averted the systemic risk of a "physical run leading to financial market collapse." This helped return the U.S. precious metals market from irrational frenzy to a state of rational trading. Although causing sharp short-term volatility, this measure is conducive to the healthy long-term development of the precious metals market, creating conditions for subsequent inventory rebuilding and supply-demand rebalancing. Finally, investors are strongly reminded that precious metals prices have entered a historically high range. It is recommended that in January 2026, after a significant price correction across the four precious metal varieties, a strategy of gradually buying on dips should be the primary approach.
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