On May 13, gold continued its sideways movement. The Asian session opened with a minor rally above $4720, which failed to sustain. The European session saw a pullback, with prices largely oscillating around the $4700 level throughout the day. The US session then erased the day's gains, ultimately closing at $4688, marking a second consecutive day of decline on the daily chart.
As of Thursday, May 14, the gold market finds itself in a "range-bound and slightly weak" pattern. Support is provided by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and geopolitical risks, while resistance stems from persistent US inflation, a strong US dollar, and Indian import duties. The battle between bulls and bears is concentrated around the key $4700 level. The 4-hour chart indicates sustained pressure below the 20-period moving average (around $4705), suggesting a short-term bias towards consolidation and correction, though strong buying interest is noted in the $4650-$4660 zone.
Additionally, the Senate approved Wash's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair on May 13, following his confirmation as a Fed Governor (with a 14-year term) the previous day. Wash will officially assume his role after the White House signing process, succeeding Powell, whose term ends on May 15. Wash's prior remarks have been hawkish, emphasizing the priority of fighting inflation, raising market concerns that he may maintain higher interest rates for longer. His formal approval signals a potential further tilt towards a "hawkish" policy stance at the Fed. While uncertainty remains regarding his future policy path, expectations of "higher for longer" interest rates are currently dominating gold's pricing logic in the near term.
Technically, although gold saw a rebound in the early Asian session yesterday, the subsequent trend remained weak and choppy. The downward shift in the hourly chart's structure suggests a greater propensity for corrective pullbacks. The current hourly trading range has further narrowed. For the day, expect a continuation of the oscillation within the $4710-$4660 range. The risk of a decisive directional move is increasing in the short term, making it crucial to monitor potential unexpected news triggers over the next two days. Any significant news could propel gold out of its current consolidation and extend in the chosen direction.
In summary, with bullish and bearish factors intertwined and forces balanced, the direction remains unclear, advising against aggressive trading. Focus will be on Wash's policy stance after his official appointment (markets will closely watch his first speech) and subsequent developments in US-Iran negotiations. The primary strategy should be trading within the range, employing strict stop-losses, and waiting for a clear breakout signal.
Intraday trading suggestions: Gold: Trade within the $4650-$4750 range. Use a 10-point stop-loss and target 60-80 points.
Key economic data and events to watch for Thursday, May 14, 2026: 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending May 9) 20:30 US Retail Sales MoM (April) 20:30 US Import Price Index MoM (April) 22:00 US Business Inventories MoM (March) 22:15 Fed's Schmid speaks on payment innovations Next Day 01:00 Fed's Hammack participates in a panel discussion.
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