October 12: Gold market last week: International gold rebounded from its lows to close higher, failing to break below the ascending trendline support. It will continue to look above this level, maintaining ongoing consolidation while awaiting an upward push.
In terms of influencing factors, early in the week, the U.S. ISM September services data posted a four-year record increase, supporting Federal Reserve rate hikes and boosting the U.S. dollar index. Meanwhile, 30-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2002, and the New York Fed reported that the one-year inflation expectation rose to 3.9%, a more than three-year high. The logic and outlook for oil price gains never faded, with 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields climbing to their highest since 2002. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes released hawkish signals, with all 19 officials supporting rate hikes and the majority believing another increase was still needed before year-end, pressuring gold to plunge and touch its weekly low. However, boosted by favorable non-farm payroll data, in the latter half of the week, U.S. President Trump stated on social media that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the midterm elections. The bullish momentum in the dollar index and Treasury yields eased, global gold ETFs recorded a record quarterly inflow in Q3, China's central bank increased its gold holdings for a 23rd consecutive month, and geopolitical tensions briefly eased — all of which lifted gold from its lows and turned it stronger.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the week at $4,140.06 per ounce, steadily strengthened through consecutive sessions, but plunged on Wednesday to record a weekly low of $4,066.23. It then rebounded from the bottom, rising for two consecutive days on Thursday and Friday, and hit a weekly high of $4,207.12 on Friday before finally closing at $4,195.19. The weekly range was $140.89, with a gain of $55.13, or 1.33%.
Looking ahead to this Monday (October 12): International gold opened slightly weaker before turning firmer, with the U.S. dollar index opening high and moving lower, serving as the dominant factor. In the short term, the dollar index remains oscillating at high levels with slowing bullish momentum, providing some support for gold prices, but the weekly and monthly chart outlooks remain bullish, which will limit gold's rebound. Therefore, for gold, the rebound should still be viewed as阶段性 (phase-specific), and the trend will continue to be dominated by range-bound trading at the weekly and monthly chart levels.
On the fundamental front, Trump's remarks about halting strikes on Iran before the midterm elections, Iranian senior official Rezaei stating that the U.S. has accepted some of Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump saying both Russia and Ukraine agreed to implement an "energy ceasefire" — combined with the 10-year Treasury yield pulling back from its highest since 2002 and falling oil prices reducing inflation pressure and the case for rate hikes — will also ease bearish pressure on gold in the short term, keeping it primarily in bottom-building consolidation or rebound mode.
Technically, at the monthly chart level: Gold faced resistance and closed lower in September, falling below the 5-10 month moving averages and failing to extend August's rebound momentum for further gains, with bearish forces intensifying. However, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the price is running above the middle band, suggesting a bias toward consolidation before climbing again. Although the secondary indicators maintain bearish signals, hinting at further lows ahead,刷新 (refreshing) those lows simultaneously presents long-term bullish entry opportunities. Attention can be paid to the support near the 30-month moving average.
At the weekly chart level: Gold stopped falling and rebounded last week near the support above the ascending trend channel that began in 2024. Based on historical price action, there is an expectation of continued consolidation above this support, but bearish pressure has not yet eased. For short-term bullish positioning, one can look to go long near this support with an eye on $4,300 or $4,400 resistance. For medium-to-long-term bullish positioning, one can look within the channel support zone of $3,900-$3,700 for new highs.
At the daily chart level: Gold opened and remains above the short-term moving averages, with secondary indicators maintaining bullish signals. The short-term bias remains toward strength, and further rebound gains are expected, awaiting a test of the 100-day moving average target resistance or higher. On the downside, watch the short-term moving average support or the ascending trendline support to maintain a bullish stance.
Below are preliminary intraday long/short level references. Specific entry and exit points are subject to real-time notifications:
Gold: Downside support at $4,170 or $4,150; upside resistance at $4,225 or $4,250.
Silver: Downside support at $60.60 or $60.10; upside resistance at $62.00 or $62.50.
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