For the fourth day in a row, the Economic Daily has published a commentator article on its front page refuting erroneous narratives about China's economy promoted by foreign media. The latest article, titled "Refuting the 'Peak China Theory'," follows previous pieces addressing "China Impact Theory" and "China Economic Slowdown Theory."
Following China's announcement of its annual growth target, Western media has revived pessimistic narratives about China's economy, with the latest version being the "Peak China Theory." However, China's economy surpassed 140 trillion yuan in 2025 and continues to grow steadily on a high base, a fact recognized globally.
The concept of economic "peak" requires examination—whether it refers to economic scale, growth rate, development quality, or growth momentum. Objective analysis shows that "Peak China" contradicts facts across all dimensions.
Regarding scale and speed, some Western media highlighted the widening GDP gap between China and the US after 2025 data release. However, nominal GDP calculations don't account for inflation. When measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), which considers price differences between countries, institutions like the IMF indicate China's GDP already leads globally.
China remains the largest contributor to global economic growth. With its expanded economic base, a 5% growth rate now translates to over 5 trillion yuan in incremental output—equivalent to a medium-sized country's annual GDP. While growth has moderated after decades of rapid expansion, this adjustment reflects China's strategic shift toward high-quality development and economic upgrading, aligning with patterns seen in modern economies. Judging an economy by short-term fluctuations in a single metric leads to misinterpretation.
Concerning quality and efficiency, doubts about China's development typically focus on three aspects: First, claims of insufficient growth momentum overlook emerging industries and business models while focusing solely on traditional sectors facing transformation challenges. China's increased R&D investment has unleashed unstoppable new growth drivers. In 2025, output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles grew by 52.5%, 28.0%, and 25.1% respectively. Traditional industries are moving up the value chain, becoming important engines for new advantages. A leading British consultancy noted this marks the first time an emerging economy has reached technology's forefront.
Total factor productivity (TFP) serves as a key indicator of growth momentum. Countries maintaining TFP growth after industrialization are more likely to overcome the middle-income trap. In October last year, the Penn World Table revised China's TFP data for 2009-2023 to show an average annual increase of 2.1%, confirming technological progress as a key growth driver and invalidating claims of stagnant productivity.
Second, arguments about disappearing demographic dividends wrongly attribute slower growth to population aging while ignoring China's transition from "population dividend" to "talent dividend." Demographic shifts don't dictate economic trends, and human resource quality matters more than quantity. Effective labor—the product of workforce size and education level—proves more critical for development.
China excels in this transformation. With 968 million workers, China boasts one of the world's largest labor forces. The average education level reached 11.3 years for people aged 16-59 in 2025, and effective labor continues growing when considering new entrants and retirees. This vast talent pool enables disruptive innovations, with applications like DeepSeek demonstrating returns from China's "engineer dividend." China produces over 5 million STEM graduates annually, leading globally in total talent resources and R&D personnel, providing solid foundations for technological innovation.
Third, assertions of limited domestic demand momentum mistakenly claim policy inadequacies hinder consumption growth, ignoring vibrant market activity. China's approach avoids excessive stimulus, focusing instead on fundamental measures like urban-rural income growth plans and removing unreasonable consumption restrictions outlined in this year's Government Work Report.
Though consumption changes gradually, service sectors like culture, sports, leisure, and transportation achieved double-digit growth in 2025. Internationally, developed economies typically experience declining investment rates and rising consumption rates during later industrialization stages—a transition China currently undergoes as consumption shifts from subsistence and material needs to development and services.
Emerging trends—from soccer league popularity to global LABUBU craze, Hanfu fashion revival, and sold-out performances—demonstrate consumption potential. These bright spots contain immense vitality for long-term prosperity.
Having developed from poverty through various challenges, China didn't collapse due to "China Collapse Theory" and won't peak because of "Peak China Theory." Looking ahead, China possesses substantial advantages: a 1.4 billion population creating huge demand, over 200 million skilled workers offering unique dividends, complete industrial chains serving as global testing grounds for new technologies, and continuous reform and opening-up releasing endless potential.
As Bloomberg noted in its "most important insight for 2025": "Repeat after me: Never bet against China"—a conviction the Chinese people firmly share.
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