Abstract
MEITUAN-W will report quarterly results on June 1, 2026 post-Market, with this preview summarizing expected revenue, earnings trajectory, and key operational drivers alongside the latest sentiment from markets and recent developments affecting the print.Market Forecast
For the quarter to be reported on June 1, 2026, market models point to revenue of RMB 91.14 billion, implying 6.72% year-over-year growth; an EBIT loss of RMB 7.90 billion, reflecting a year-over-year deterioration of 187.44%; and adjusted EPS around -0.93 with a year-over-year change of -160.65%. Margin forecasts were not provided in the available datasets.The company’s main business momentum into this quarter appears tied to consumption recovery in in-store and travel categories during April–May, where company data showed strong holiday activity, indicating resilient demand for local services entering the current reporting period. The most promising growth vector is the broader New Initiatives portfolio, supported by product and geographic expansion; it generated RMB 104.03 billion in the segment dataset, while external indicators from the holiday period point to robust activity levels year over year.
Last Quarter Review
MEITUAN-W’s previous quarter delivered revenue of RMB 92.10 billion, gross profit margin of 25.28%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 15.14 billion, a net profit margin of -16.65%, and adjusted EPS of -2.48; revenue rose 4.08% year over year, while adjusted EPS fell 283.43% year over year. Quarter on quarter, the net profit improved by 18.72%, indicating narrowing losses against a backdrop of steady top-line growth.Within operations, Core Local Commerce remained the primary revenue engine; in the latest available segment dataset it accounted for 71.49% of sales and recorded RMB 260.83 billion, while group quarterly revenue reached RMB 92.10 billion, up 4.08% year over year.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Local Commerce
The core business is entering the quarter with catalysts concentrated in in-store services, on-demand delivery engagement, and seasonal travel consumption. Company-reported activity during the early Q2 holiday period suggests healthier order volumes across leisure and travel-related categories, which typically support high-frequency use across food delivery and in-store transactions. Translating this into the current print, investors will likely focus on whether the monthly order run-rate and average order value held up in May, and whether voucher spend and merchant marketing point to sustained in-store recovery into June.A critical variable for profitability is the balance between growth engagement spending and take-rate discipline. If the company leaned into promotions to maximize holiday traffic, gross margin in the quarter could show mixed signals despite absolute revenue resilience; conversely, if merchant ad budgets and take-rate dynamics improved, gross profit margin may surprise on the upside even if unit economics on new user cohorts remain conservative. The last quarter’s 25.28% gross margin provides a reference point; any sequential expansion would help offset the expected EBIT loss. The net profit margin was -16.65% last quarter, and although the quarter-on-quarter improvement in net profit was 18.72%, the model-based estimates for this quarter still imply a year-over-year decline in EPS; a better-than-expected core contribution would be needed to counter that.
Operationally, compliance costs and rider-related initiatives remain near-term considerations. The company has progressed initiatives to expand riders’ social-insurance coverage and adjust delivery management rules, which may add operating costs in the short run while potentially stabilizing service quality and retention. Execution around courier efficiency, merchant onboarding, and ad monetization will be key to stabilizing contribution margin in this core unit during the quarter.
New Initiatives and Overseas Expansion
The New Initiatives segment is positioned as the largest growth option set, encompassing retail on demand, mobility, and overseas expansion. In the latest available segment dataset, this portfolio generated RMB 104.03 billion. During the period covered by this preview, the company advanced product development and ecosystem initiatives, including a conversational AI-based “NoCode” programming tool in testing, which may improve internal tool-building, merchant software workflows, and long-term operating leverage. While not directly revenue-accretive for the quarter, such capabilities could lower development friction across products and enhance speed-to-market for new features.The overseas delivery push remains a focal point. The company’s Hong Kong brand has continued to expand its ecosystem and is reportedly preparing to extend its international footprint beyond Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia. Early-stage markets can require elevated subsidies to attract couriers and restaurants, and commission structures are commonly adjusted to gain initial share. This tends to weigh on EBIT given logistics subsidies, onboarding incentives, and local compliance costs, especially during expansion spurts. As a result, even with supportive demand indicators, the model-based forecast implies an EBIT loss of RMB 7.90 billion this quarter with a -187.44% year-over-year change, reflecting the cumulative investment cycle and the comparison base.
In the near term, investors will likely scrutinize active merchant counts, order density, and courier productivity in these newer businesses. Higher order density can improve delivery batching and reduce per-order costs, which would alleviate the EBIT drag. Clear progress here would set up a better operating trajectory for the second half, even if the immediate quarter still reflects the weight of international expansion and newer product incubation.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The immediate share-price reaction is likely to be dictated by three elements: revenue vs. expectations, loss magnitude vs. modeled EBIT/EPS, and the margin trajectory implied by the core business mix. On the top line, modeled revenue is RMB 91.14 billion with a 6.72% year-over-year increase; delivering at or above this range while signaling stable or improving take rates would be supportive. On profitability, investors will focus on whether the EBIT loss is narrower than the -RMB 7.90 billion implied by the models and whether adjusted EPS trends better than -0.93; any upside to these figures would challenge cautious positioning seen in derivatives flows.Regulatory headlines in the quarter have also shaped sentiment. Authorities’ interviews with multiple platform companies highlighted competitive practices in the delivery space, a reminder that compliance discipline and merchant relations will remain top of mind for investors assessing the durability of monetization. Meanwhile, company initiatives to expand social protections for riders are strategically constructive but can introduce transitional cost headwinds, requiring offset through efficiency and product monetization. The options market data observed during May points to increased demand for downside hedges, indicating that the market is sensitive to potential misses on losses and margins.
Finally, operational data around April–May travel and entertainment spending will be read through to in-store and local services. Company data during the May holiday period showed cultural-tourism orders rising against the comparable period two years earlier, which, if reflected in in-store GMV and advertising engagement, could lift revenue quality for the quarter. The degree to which this demand persists into June will shape guidance commentary and the trajectory implied for the next quarter.
Analyst Opinions
Based on collected views and market signals between January 1, 2025 and May 25, 2025, the majority stance skews cautious. Negative-toned items outnumbered positive items during this period, led by a post-earnings share price drop on March 24, 2025, multiple sessions of elevated put-option activity on May 15, 2025 and May 23, 2025, and fresh regulatory scrutiny highlighted on May 13, 2025. While supportive trading sessions were recorded in early and mid-May, options market hedging and regulatory headlines collectively point to a guarded bias into the print.The cautious view centers on three points. First, the model-based forecast for this quarter implies a year-over-year deterioration in losses despite revenue growth of 6.72%; specifically, EBIT at -RMB 7.90 billion and adjusted EPS near -0.93 are not yet pointing to a decisive inflection in earnings quality. Second, regulatory engagement with delivery platforms signals continued oversight of competitive conduct, pricing behavior, and worker protections, which can influence cost structures and monetization choices in the near term. Third, options market activity—highlighted by notable increases in put volumes during May—suggests that a segment of the market is hedging against an outcome where losses or margins miss expectations even with decent top-line trends.
Proponents of the cautious stance also emphasize that expansion into new geographies and newer product lines requires sustained investment and careful calibration of incentives. The overseas delivery strategy, while promising in terms of long-term addressable market, increases near-term volatility in operating metrics. If order density in expansion markets does not reach critical thresholds quickly enough, the EBIT impact for the quarter can overwhelm incremental gross profit from core operations, especially when coupled with incremental compliance and labor-protection costs. This is consistent with the model-based year-over-year decline in profitability metrics implied for the current quarter.
From a market-reaction perspective, those holding a cautious view will likely need to see two signs to re-rate the stock upward in the near term. One is a clear narrowing of the EBIT loss relative to the -RMB 7.90 billion expectation, ideally accompanied by improved gross margin vs. the 25.28% recorded last quarter. The second is evidence that April–May strength in local services translated into stronger monetization in in-store/advertising, and that such strength is sustainable beyond the holiday peak. Without these, the majority view expects the stock to trade largely on loss magnitude, cash cost discipline, and ongoing regulatory signals rather than on revenue beats alone.
In summary, the prevailing market stance into the June 1, 2026 report is cautious. The base case anticipates revenue around RMB 91.14 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.72%, alongside a deeper year-over-year earnings decline at the EBIT and EPS lines driven by investment and compliance factors. A positive surprise would likely require both better loss containment and identifiable improvements in core monetization quality. Conversely, if losses or margins underperform the modeled path, the cautious positioning expressed in derivatives markets may persist, reinforcing the majority’s guarded interpretation of the quarter.
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