Goldman Sachs said in a research report that it maintains its "Buy" rating on PING AN (02318.HK), but due to pressure on life insurance new policy sales, it has lowered its H-share target price to HK$68, while the A-share target price was also cut to RMB70.
Goldman Sachs noted that PING AN's overall third-quarter results were broadly in line with expectations. Among the highlights, quarterly operating profit rose 8% year-on-year, beating the bank's previous forecast, mainly driven by a positive operating variance in the life insurance business and a relatively low effective tax rate. In addition, the company's book value and asset management business profit also exceeded expectations.
However, weighed down by industry headwinds such as the high base effect created by earlier promotional campaigns and disruptions in the bancassurance channel, third-quarter life insurance new business value (NBV) plunged 54% year-on-year, a decline far steeper than market expectations.
Taking into account the weak stock market, the bank lowered its forecast for the company's net profit for fiscal year 2026 by 4%, but slightly raised its operating profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 1% to 3%. At the same time, to reflect the drag on long-term value from declining new policy sales, it correspondingly cut its new business value forecasts for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 5% to 6%.
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