On July 6th, COMEX gold experienced a fluctuating decline, though the drop was relatively restrained, closing at $4176.3 per ounce for a gain of 0.26%. In domestic trading, SHFE gold saw a slight rebound during the night session, settling at 909.96 yuan per gram, marking a decrease of 0.15%.
Macroeconomic Factors
On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. June ISM Services PMI decreased from 54.5 to 54.0, slightly below the market expectation of 54.2. This figure has remained consistently above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, indicating that the services sector is still in an expansionary phase, albeit at a slowing pace. However, the employment index recorded its largest increase since 2024 and returned to expansion territory, while the prices paid index fell to 67.7, its lowest level in four months, suggesting a deceleration in the pace of rising business costs. Divergences within the Federal Reserve regarding communication strategies for monetary policy are becoming apparent. Governor Waller stated that forward guidance remains a valuable policy tool, a stance that contrasts with that of Governor Waller.
Geopolitical Developments
Geopolitically, former President Trump stated that resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict would happen "much faster than people think," with Putin expressing a desire to end the conflict. Israel announced an "indefinite" military presence in three security zones: Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and Syria. As the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance moderates, the pricing logic in the precious metals market is beginning to shift from a "tightening narrative" to a phase of "data verification and policy adjustment," with signs of stabilization emerging after the decline. However, it is important to note two key points: firstly, the Federal Reserve has not initiated expectations for interest rate cuts, and inflation risks remain elevated; secondly, Governor Waller simultaneously emphasized the continuation of balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening), which exerts a more prolonged tightening effect on liquidity. Recent performance in the gold market shows a relatively strong pattern of bottom-range consolidation, yet the rebound remains weak, indicating that the divergence between bullish and bearish sentiments is still significant, and excessive optimism is not warranted.
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