Bob Michele, Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that the U.S. bond market is expected to deliver returns of approximately 7% to 8% over the next 12 months. He also expressed the view that the long end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve offers the greatest value.
Speaking at an event in Singapore, Michele said, "The U.S. Treasury yield curve is approaching 5%," with front-end yields sitting slightly below that level. "So we first expect some price appreciation. After that, you still get the carry."
U.S. Treasury prices have risen broadly this month. A combination of factors — including a sell-off in artificial intelligence-related stocks, the crisis in France, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East — has made U.S. government bonds the preferred safe-haven asset for global investors. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen by more than 30 basis points since the start of October, on track to end a streak of seven consecutive monthly increases.
Michele said he believes the long end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve offers the most value. He added that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this week but is likely to return in December with a hawkish signal. "The Fed will signal that it is still in a rate-hiking cycle. Long-term investors would welcome that, because they want the Fed to stay vigilant about economic growth and inflationary pressures, and real yields are indeed too high right now," Michele said.
JPMorgan Asset Management oversees approximately $4.6 trillion in assets. Last month, Michele said his team had begun purchasing long-dated bonds in the United States, Japan, and Australia, describing those bonds as "just too cheap" and declaring that the market had reached a "pain threshold."
The Bloomberg index tracking U.S. Treasury returns has fallen 0.9% so far in 2026, following gains in each of the previous three years.
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