Data shows that from January to May, the cumulative volume of express delivery business reached 82.87 billion parcels, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Specifically, the volume for May alone was 18.3 billion parcels, up 5.7% compared to the same period last year.
This steady growth in business volume has driven a continuous rise in industry revenue. Cumulative express delivery revenue for the first five months reached 635.37 billion yuan, a 7.2% year-on-year increase. Revenue for May was 137.44 billion yuan, growing 9.5% year-on-year.
The pace of international expansion for the express delivery sector is accelerating. From January to May, the cumulative volume of international and Hong Kong/Macao/Taiwan express business reached 1.78 billion parcels, an increase of 7.4%. The shares of same-city, cross-region, and international/Hong Kong/Macao/Taiwan express business in the total volume were 7.1%, 90.8%, and 2.1%, respectively.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, online retail sales of physical goods in the first five months of the year reached 5.2718 trillion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year.
Analysts highlight the potential for a significant profit catalyst in the second quarter of 2026 for e-commerce express delivery, with quarterly profit growth rates expected to improve further. Supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and more proactive efforts to explore commercial flow opportunities, the growth rate of express delivery volume may accelerate in the second half of the year. The full-year parcel volume growth is projected to remain at 8%.
Beyond price increases, the ability to reduce costs is a key differentiator. Even as 'anti-involution' policies reduce cut-throat competition, the competitive gap between express companies is widening, and narrowing price differentials may allow more competitive leaders to capture greater economies of scale.
Simultaneously, AI applications are creating divergence in parcel volume handling and cost-reduction capabilities, potentially widening the competitive advantages of certain players. Amid potential external policy uncertainties, the importance of leading express companies solidifying their network competitiveness to build alpha has increased.
Current valuations for leading express delivery companies are seen as highly attractive, suggesting opportunities for strategic positioning.
Key Express Delivery Stocks in Focus
ZTO EXPRESS-W (HKEX: 02057): Analysts note that anti-involution policies are reducing price competition, allowing ZTO to enhance efficiency, invest in technology, and raise industry barriers. The company's volume growth guidance for 2026 is 10% to 13%, exceeding the industry forecast of 8%, benefiting from market share gains, a more rational pricing environment, and margin expansion.
J&T GLOBAL EXPRESS LTD - W (HKEX: 01519): Analysts are optimistic about the company's global expansion, expecting it to continue gaining market share and benefiting from the e-commerce boom in Southeast Asia. Other markets like Latin America are also showing strong growth potential due to the rapid rise of cross-border e-commerce platforms and increasing online penetration. Following the market close on June 9, J&T and SF HOLDING announced the completion of a cross-share subscription. J&T now holds a 4.29% stake in SF, while SF holds a 9.98% stake in J&T.
SF HOLDING (HKEX: 06936): The company's core express delivery division demonstrates strong profit resilience. Its supply chain and international businesses benefit from the wave of Chinese companies expanding overseas. The strategic cooperation with J&T GLOBAL EXPRESS opens up synergies and is expected to help build a second growth curve.
JD Logistics, Inc. (HKEX: 02618): In 2025, the company successfully doubled its self-operated overseas warehouse area, continuously enhancing its fulfillment network capability. The total area of self-operated overseas warehouses managed is nearly 2 million square meters, covering 25 countries and regions globally. The company made positive progress in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region in 2025, driving high growth in its overseas business.
SF Intra-City Industrial Co., Ltd. (HKEX: 09699): The company's network layout continues to improve alongside revenue growth. In 2025, it added over 7,900 new partnered stores, and its active merchant base reached 1.12 million, a 72% year-on-year increase. B2B intra-city delivery services are a core growth driver for 2026, with full-year revenue for this segment reaching 10.7 billion yuan, a 60% increase, benefiting from the surge in food delivery and non-food instant retail scenarios. The C2C intra-city delivery business also achieved steady growth, with revenue reaching 2.77 billion yuan in 2025, a 13.7% year-on-year increase.
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