On September 24, gold continues to exhibit a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears. While there is downward pressure in the short term, the medium-to-long-term support at the bottom remains very solid, with the two opposing forces counterbalancing each other, making a strong one-way downtrend difficult to sustain at the moment.
Recent U.S. economic data has been impressive, with both manufacturing and services sectors recovering, and employment and cost figures steadily rising. This has reignited market concerns that inflation may not cool quickly. Combined with hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, expectations for further interest rate hikes have been boosted, which in turn has pushed the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields higher, directly pressuring gold and serving as the main reason for last night's weak and volatile price action.
However, despite an abundance of short-term bearish news, gold has not experienced a sustained plunge. This is mainly because multiple supportive factors in the market are offsetting the downward momentum. On one hand, the market is paying attention to the United States' huge debt and fiscal pressures; rising Treasury yields no longer solely indicate economic strength but also harbor fiscal risks, which to some extent weakens the suppression of rate hikes on gold.
On the other hand, global capital remains bullish on gold, with central banks continuously increasing their gold reserves and domestic physical gold demand staying robust, providing a steady stream of buying at lower levels and firmly holding the bottom support for the gold price. At the same time, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, which could trigger safe-haven demand at any time and offer latent support for gold.
From a technical perspective of the current chart, gold is in a recovery phase after the decline, mainly consolidating at lower levels. However, after the recent pullback, the price has gradually stabilized, with the pace of decline clearly slowing. Multiple tests of lower levels have failed to produce new lows, and bearish momentum continues to weaken. Nevertheless, bulls have not yet shown any signs of launching a counterattack, and the short-term pressure from moving averages above is somewhat evident, resulting in weak and short-lived rebound momentum. For now, the market is only experiencing a simple technical correction, not a complete trend reversal, and the short-term cycle is expected to remain choppy and range-bound.
For today's short-term operations, there are clear and critical defensive and offensive levels that will also directly determine the strength and direction of the current market. The first short-term support below is around 4273-4280, which is also the low-point support where the market has stabilized and the current short-term defense line for bulls.
The short-term resistance above is primarily concentrated at 4305-4315, with stronger resistance near 4335-4345, which is the first key high-level barrier that short-term rebounds need to break through.
For today's gold short-term trading points, here are the references: 1. At the current price, we first consider using the lower support level around 4273-4280 as the primary zone to initiate long positions, with a protective stop loss set at 4255 to guard against a one-way decline. For these long positions, we first look to target the 4305-4315 mark above, and further, the resistance zone of 4335-4345 from the previous two days. 2. As for when to take short positions, today we should primarily focus on where this rebound can reach. The key initial level to watch above is the 4335-4345 resistance zone, which is our primary area for re-entering shorts. The protective stop loss for these short positions should be placed at 4358 to guard against a one-way rally, with the target points set for the 4290-4285 area below.
In summary, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, the overall upward structure of gold remains intact. This pullback is merely a normal adjustment and repair during an uptrend, not a complete reversal of the trend. The core logic of central bank gold purchases, geopolitical hedging, and hedging against dollar risks remains unchanged; the market is merely suppressed by rate hike expectations in the short term. However, as the market gradually digests the Fed's tightening expectations and the impact of bearish factors materializes, gold still has the opportunity to rebound again. Looking ahead, we will continue to focus on the breakout of the trading range and wait for the market to choose a new clear direction for bulls or bears. SINA cooperation large platform futures account opening, safe, fast, and guaranteed.
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