On July 28, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to explain China's position on the so-called "overcapacity" issue. A reporter asked how the international community should view the two prevailing narratives regarding China's industrial development and technological innovation: "China Shock 2.0" and "China Opportunity 2.0," and whether China's industrial growth presents a shock or an opportunity to the world. Deputy Commerce Minister Yan Dong responded at the meeting.
First, this topic has drawn significant public attention and is widely discussed. Some countries have propagated the "China Shock 2.0" narrative, falsely accusing China's industrial development of threatening the monopoly positions of Western nations and squeezing the development space of Global South countries. This argument is unfounded and untenable. Over the past decade, China has been a major engine of global economic growth, contributing approximately 30% annually. By leveraging its market advantages, industrial progress, and technological advancements, China has increasingly provided global "market dividends," "development dividends," and "innovation dividends." These converging dividends generate more development opportunities and greater growth space for the world, aligning with the "China Opportunity 2.0" narrative recognized by more rational and objective voices in the international community.
This can be understood from four key aspects. First, China's industrial development serves as a ballast for global supply chain stability. China possesses the world's largest, most comprehensive, and most complete industrial manufacturing system. It consistently and efficiently supplies a wide range of industrial products, strongly supporting global stability, and effectively offsetting local supply gaps caused by protectionism and geopolitical conflicts. This demonstrates China's resilience and capacity, playing a stabilizing and pivotal role in global industrial cooperation. By exporting high-quality, cost-effective production equipment and components, China has lowered the entry barrier for manufacturing in developing countries. From 2012 to 2024, China exported over $30 billion worth of textile machinery to developing nations, helping some countries in Southeast Asia and South Asia become major textile producers and exporters.
Second, China's industrial development is a new engine for global innovation cooperation. Adhering to an innovation-driven strategy, China has forged an effective path where technological innovation leads industrial advancement, and industrial upgrading, in turn, fuels technological iteration. Any valuable technological achievement, when combined with China's manufacturing capabilities, can be rapidly transformed into practical products. This provides an ideal testing ground for new products and services, enabling "0-to-1" validation and "1-to-N" scaling. China promotes open innovation, and its rapidly growing innovative enterprises have delivered returns several times or even tens of times higher for global investors. Many Chinese innovations, such as AI large models, follow an open-source approach, which is highly favored worldwide. The global cumulative downloads of Chinese open-source large models have exceeded 10 billion, making new technologies accessible and affordable for more countries, especially developing ones.
Third, China's industrial development is a driving force for global green transformation. China is accelerating its comprehensive green transition, promoting green and low-carbon industrial development. By the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, China's green industry scale is expected to exceed 20 trillion yuan. The rapid growth of China's green industry has enriched the global supply of new energy products, significantly advancing the global green and low-carbon process. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the global average levelized cost of electricity for wind and solar photovoltaic projects has cumulatively fallen by over 60% and 80%, respectively, over the past decade, largely attributable to Chinese manufacturing and capacity. Amid global energy shortages and rising electricity demand driven by AI, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40% of new power demand relying on renewable energy. China's significant scale and technological advantages in solar energy, energy storage, and electrification will better meet future global green energy needs and industrial development requirements.
China's industrial development is a catalyst for improving people's livelihoods worldwide. The rapid expansion of China's industry provides the world with high-quality, efficient, and cost-effective products, offering consumers more stable and diverse choices. Chinese manufacturing has enhanced the quality of life for people globally, reduced living costs, and alleviated global inflationary pressures. For example, the recent surge in Chinese air conditioner sales to Europe has provided relief to local populations during heatwaves. The European Central Bank estimated that if EU imports from China increase by 10% in 2026, the overall EU import price index would fall by 1.6%. China's trade and investment have significantly boosted the industrialization of developing countries. With over 50,000 enterprises established overseas and an investment stock exceeding $3 trillion, nearly 90% of which is in developing economies, Chinese companies, through local production, procurement, employment, supporting industries, and regional supply chain connectivity, have promoted numerous projects in light industry, textiles, and home appliances, while also fostering development in digital and green sectors. This has enhanced the host countries' ability to generate local added value through exports. According to the Chinese Academy of Sciences, from 2012 to 2025, the local export value added driven by Chinese enterprises in 24 developing economies increased from $24.4 billion to $142.4 billion, a nearly five-fold increase. The "China squeeze theory" propagated by certain countries is a new variant of the "China threat theory," aiming to undermine cooperation between China and Global South nations and shift historical and current responsibilities, rather than genuinely helping developing countries. Facts and data compellingly demonstrate that China's industrial development brings not shocks but opportunities to the world, not threats but empowerment. It helps modernize developing countries and builds bridges for them.
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