According to a Wednesday report from Vanda Research, Anthropic is expected to attract record retail buying on its first day of trading, potentially surpassing SpaceX to become one of the largest single-day retail buying events in history.
The research firm estimates, based on its analysis of first-day retail activity and pre-IPO perpetual contract trading volumes on Hyperliquid, that Anthropic will draw approximately $250 million in net retail buying on its debut day. That would be double the previous $118 million retail buying record set by SpaceX.
Vanda Research global macro strategist Viraj Patel said in the report, "Judging from the trading of pre-IPO perpetual contracts, Anthropic is on track to become a record-breaking retail IPO."
Pre-IPO perpetual contracts are derivative contracts traded on exchanges such as Hyperliquid and Coinbase, allowing traders to bet on the valuations of private companies. These contracts are not directly linked to the underlying stock but are priced by reference to the company's latest disclosed pre-IPO valuation.
The data firm added that since 2024, only six stocks have seen single-day retail buying exceed $250 million. Vanda stated, "Anthropic may attract a scale of retail buying rarely seen in our data next week."
Anthropic is targeting a valuation of up to $1.4 trillion in its IPO, with shares expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq on November 19.
Large Investors Are Equally Enthusiastic
Beyond retail investors, subscription interest from large institutions is equally high, with earlier and more definitive signals. Judging from institutional investor behavior, oversubscription is almost a certainty.
According to people familiar with the matter, Anthropic has currently received share subscription intentions amounting to several times the number of shares available for issuance, demonstrating strong market demand for the developer of the Claude chatbot.
As investor subscription enthusiasm continues to heat up, Anthropic's listing is poised to become the largest IPO in global history.
The people familiar with the matter said the subscription demand is primarily driven by subscription intentions from large cornerstone investors. The people requested anonymity because the relevant information has not yet been made public. Meanwhile, the specific offering terms of the IPO may still change.
According to documents filed by Anthropic, the company and its co-founders plan to raise up to $90.4 billion in total through the IPO and a private placement. If completed as planned, the combined scale of the two parts of the financing would exceed SpaceX's previous IPO, setting a new record for the scale of corporate listing financing globally.
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