The apple market is currently in a consolidation phase, with the new season's fruit entering the late bagging stage across major production regions.
The weather has been generally stable, lacking widespread, persistent adverse conditions like late frosts or hailstorms, which has removed a key upward catalyst for futures prices.
The front-month futures contract shows a contango structure, while the January contract corresponds to the peak seasonal demand period around holidays.
A small quantity of very early-ripening varieties has begun to hit the market, but their poor taste and minimal volume prevent them from posing real competition to stored apples.
The clearance of cold storage inventories officially entered its final stage in mid-June.
While western region cold storages are nearly empty, a wide disparity in fruit quality has led to chaotic market pricing.
Weekly shipment volume has slowed slightly compared to last week, as a rich variety of affordable seasonal fruits have diverted consumer demand and squeezed apple sales.
Price Performance: Neutral
Current spot prices are around 3.2 yuan per jin for top-grade 80# paper-bag apples from Qixia, and 3.75 yuan per jin for 70# semi-premium apples from Luochuan.
Last Friday, the main Apple futures contract closed at 7,698 yuan per ton, with the basis for the front-month contract at -1,198 yuan per ton.
Supply Outlook: Slightly Bearish
China's apple production for the 2025 season is forecast at 34.3132 million tons, down 6.0% year-on-year, with planted area at 1.74484 million hectares.
The market holds a strong expectation of a bumper new crop, which is exerting supply-side pressure on futures prices.
Demand Situation: Neutral
National cold storage apple inventories stand at 1.3761 million tons.
While the weekly shipment pace has slowed slightly, it remains faster than the same period last year.
The price gap between apples and competing fruits remains wide, sustaining substitution pressure.
Market prices are disorganized, with lower-priced apples seeing slightly improved movement compared to earlier periods.
Cost Factors: Slightly Bullish
Transaction prices for high-quality new-crop fruit remain elevated, keeping costs high.
Export Dynamics: Neutral
China's apple imports in April 2026 totaled 22,944.856 tons, while exports reached 83,019.12 tons.
Exports, primarily of Red Fuji varieties to traditional markets like Southeast Asia and Russia, have remained stable.
Current Price Action
Spot apple prices in Shandong have stabilized for premium fruit, while prices for average-quality supplies are fluctuating weakly.
In the new season, bagging is underway in Yantai, with some areas experiencing uneven fruit set, though the overall situation is acceptable.
Shandong's overall bagging volume is slightly higher than last year.
In Penglai, prices for farmer-sourced 75# top-grade fruit are around 1.8-3.0 yuan/jin, and 80# top-grade at 2.6-3.8 yuan/jin, with almost no transactions for third-grade fruit.
In Qixia, late Fuji 80# top-grade strip-red apples are priced at 2.5-3.8 yuan/jin, with farmer-sourced 80# mixed-grade at 1.5-2.0 yuan/jin.
In Shaanxi, farmers exhibit strong urgency to sell, leading to generally chaotic pricing.
Bagging for the new crop is over halfway complete, with some unevenness in certain regions, but the overall fruit set volume exceeds last year's level.
Current Luochuan cold storage prices for farmer-sourced 70# and above mixed-grade fruit range from 2.0-3.0 yuan/jin, with a mainstream price of 2.4-2.6 yuan/jin, and lower-grade fruit around 1.2-1.6 yuan/jin.
Prices for trader-sourced 70# and above semi-premium fruit are around 3.5-4.0 yuan/jin, and for 80# and above semi-premium fruit around 4.5-4.8 yuan/jin, largely determined by quality.
Futures Basis and Spreads
On June 12th, the main Apple futures contract closed at 7,698 yuan per ton.
The spot basis for the October contract was -1,198 yuan per ton, weakening by 43 yuan per ton from the previous week.
Supply Side: Production and Inventories
Cold storage inventories continue to decline.
As of the week ending June 12th, national cold storage apple inventories stood at 1.3761 million tons, a decrease of 224,200 tons from the previous week, with Shandong holding 749,100 tons and Shaanxi 268,300 tons.
The weekly shipment pace slowed slightly but remains faster than the same period last year.
Planted Area and Output
China's apple planted area for 2025 is 1.74484 million hectares, with production estimated at 34.3132 million tons, a 6.0% year-on-year decrease.
Demand Side: Shipments and Substitutes
Cold storage outbound volume for the week ending June 12th was 224,200 tons.
Cumulative shipments for the 2025/26 season total 6.2896 million tons, compared to 7.3715 million tons in the same period last year.
Outbound volume from Shandong and Shaanxi was 158,900 tons.
Southern Market Arrivals
For the week ending June 12th, arrivals at Chalong market were 21.6 truckloads, at Jiangmen 9.8 truckloads, and at Xiaqiao 14.2 truckloads.
Market prices remain chaotic, though movement for lower-priced apples has improved slightly.
Some fruit with skin blemishes is being sold at low prices.
With seasonal fruits gradually entering the market, inventory accumulation at intermediate warehouses remains noticeable, and purchasing enthusiasm from secondary and tertiary wholesalers is moderate.
Wholesale Fruit Prices
For the week ending June 12th, the wholesale price of Kyoho grapes was 16.03 yuan/kg, down 2.4% week-on-week.
Fuji apples were at 9.09 yuan/kg, down 0.3%. Bananas were at 5.62 yuan/kg, up 0.4%. Ya pears were at 5.35 yuan/kg, down 0.2%. Watermelons were at 3.67 yuan/kg, down 4.9%. Pineapples were at 5.71 yuan/kg, up 1.6%.
Fruit Price Ratios
The apple-to-banana price ratio for the week was 1.62, and the apple-to-ya pear ratio was 1.70.
Import and Export Activity
In April 2026, China imported 22,944.856 tons of apples and exported 83,019.12 tons.
The primary export variety is Red Fuji, with traditional export markets including Southeast Asia, Russia, South Asia, and some European countries.
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