On September 25, international spot gold fell below 4,300 and probed down to around 4,250. At present, there is no desire to test the bottom, and the low level may remain in consolidation. Before it manages to break above 4,330, any move higher may only be an oversold repair rebound.
Continued choppy trading at the low end could slowly push the price below 4,250 to test around 4,230, with the next support at the bottom near 4,023. Gold may continue to trade in a choppy downward range into October. The so-called "Golden September and Silver October" are not two months of gains, but two months of wide-ranging swings and repeated position sweeping. Gold is currently in a transitional, neglected state, with neither side showing it much favor. Only central banks may gradually add to positions in batches at lower levels, but distant water cannot quench present thirst. The so-called long-term bullish view is not based on a cycle of a few months, but may be measured in years.
Friday's symbolic rebound in gold is not a reversal signal. New capital inflows will have to wait until the global AI stock market bubble shrinks to a certain scale. There is also a phenomenon: as the October National Day holiday approaches, domestic purchases of gold jewelry have been relatively low because prices are too high. This is not an attempt to talk down gold. Rather, in the short term, I personally may need to shift my focus, mainly favoring shorting on rebounds at higher levels, while appropriately setting aside long positions at lower levels.
On the technical side, the four-hour chart gave a golden cross signal today. Gold rebounded from around the low of 4,245 all the way to around 4,290, but failed to break through 4,300 and maintained range-bound box consolidation. In the short term, gold may continue to run within a box below 4,300, and any rebound will only be a symbolic oversold repair rebound, not a trend reversal. The expected bullish breakout for gold is still not likely to begin until mid-January next year.
On the daily chart, the overall price action has been back-and-forth tug-of-war, with bulls and bears alternating repeatedly. The daily candle eventually closed with a long shadow, showing some support below. Combined with yesterday's closing pattern and today's Friday session characteristics, today's overall approach prioritizes low-level consolidation and rebound repair. Even if the market briefly makes a new low, it will likely quickly recover, and a sustained one-sided decline is unlikely.
The core intraday bull-bear dividing line is at the intraday high of 4,275. As long as price remains under pressure below 4,275, the short term will stay weak and consolidating. The market will likely remain choppy around 4,260, or even within yesterday's low range. Especially near the low around 4,250, or even lower near 4,230, light long positioning can be considered for medium- to long-term holding.
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