Huaxi Securities released a research report stating that low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite orbital and spectrum resources follow the "first-come, first-served" international principle, making near-Earth orbit a strategic battleground between China and the U.S.
From a launch progress perspective, SpaceX has cumulatively launched over 10,000 satellites, with more than 8,600 currently operational in orbit. In contrast, China has only deployed around 300 LEO satellites to date, highlighting a significant gap with the U.S. and necessitating accelerated network deployment. China's LEO satellite sector is now entering an accelerated deployment phase, with launch cadence noticeably increasing. The next phase will focus on breakthroughs in mass satellite production and rapid constellation deployment technologies, transitioning from "custom single-satellite" to "constellation-scale deployment."
Key observations from Huaxi Securities:
1. **Race for Orbital Resources**: - Near-Earth orbit can accommodate approximately 60,000 satellites. - International Telecommunication Union rules mandate strict timelines: first satellite launch within 7 years of project approval, 50% deployment by year 12, and full deployment by year 14. - SpaceX has applied for 42,000 orbital slots, while Amazon's Kuiper plans 3,236 satellites. - China's GW constellation (China SatNet) has registered ~13,000 satellites, and Shanghai Yuanxin's Qianfan constellation plans ~15,000. - Global applications exceed 100,000 satellites—far surpassing orbital capacity.
2. **Launch Capability Advancements**: - SpaceX's Falcon 9 offers 22.8 tons to LEO, while China's Long March 8 provides only 7 tons, reflecting a significant payload gap. - Commercial rocket firms (e.g., Galactic Energy, CAS Space) are making strides in reusable rocket technology, with Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3 aiming to slash launch costs. Zhuque-3 plans its orbital debut by late 2025. - Mass production is driving down costs: SpaceX has reduced per-satellite expenses below $500,000 through scale, while China narrows the gap via modular designs.
3. **Market Potential**: - LEO satellites enable seamless 5G integration for global coverage. MediaTek and ESA's 2025 5G-Advanced satellite broadband test marked a milestone for direct smartphone connectivity. - AI integration is spawning intelligent satellite systems. Nvidia's H100 GPU and Google's "Project Sunliner" (TPUs in orbit by 2027) exemplify this convergence, overcoming power/thermal constraints. - Military and remote-area applications (e.g., oceans, deserts) are expanding.
4. **China's Deployment Surge**: - Recent launches include Long March 8A (LEO-06 group, July 30) and Long March 6A (LEO-11 group, September 27). - China SatNet and Qianfan constellations are adopting high-density launch modes (e.g., 10-18 satellites per rocket).
Recommended stocks: Fudan Microelectronics (688385.SH), Unigroup Guoxin (002249.SZ).
**Risks**: 1) Intensified industry competition; 2) Satellite tech development delays; 3) Policy implementation setbacks.
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