Northbound capital recorded a net purchase of HK$16.214 billion in the Hong Kong stock market on March 2. Within this total, net inflows via the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to HK$8.108 billion, while net inflows via the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HK$8.106 billion.
The stocks receiving the highest net purchases from northbound capital were CSOP Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (03033), Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), and XIAOMI-W (01810). Conversely, the stocks with the largest net sell-offs were Alibaba-W (09988) and SMIC (00981).
Investors utilized market dips to aggressively accumulate Hong Kong-listed ETFs. The CSOP Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (03033), Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index Fund (02828) received net inflows of HK$3.122 billion, HK$2.447 billion, and HK$1.531 billion, respectively. This activity occurred against a backdrop of escalating tensions concerning Iran. Analysis from Guoyuan International suggests the immediate economic impact of recent military actions is relatively contained, with effects primarily manifesting in heightened geopolitical risks. This increase in geopolitical uncertainty could dampen overall risk appetite in the Hong Kong market in the short term, potentially boosting safe-haven sentiment. The market is expected to be characterized by sector rotation and structural opportunities in the near term, while the medium to long-term outlook will depend more heavily on the situation's influence on global interest rate environments.
XIAOMI-W (01810) attracted net buying of HK$1.629 billion. The company recently held a global launch event for its Xiaomi 17 Series in Barcelona, Spain. President Lu Weibing announced several key developments, marking a new chapter in the partnership with Leica, a collaboration with Gran Turismo allowing players to drive the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra in-game, and an upcoming showcase of its "Human x Car x Home" ecosystem and AI advancements at the Mobile World Congress (MWC).
In the energy sector, CNOOC (00883) and Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery (00568) saw net inflows of HK$1.374 billion and HK$128 million, respectively. Catalysts included Citigroup raising its short-term Brent crude price forecast to $85 per barrel, with a warning that prices could surge to $120 under an extreme scenario involving attacks on energy infrastructure. HSBC noted that a disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would render approximately 4.6 million barrels per day of OPEC+ spare capacity effectively unusable, as it could not be transported, creating significant upward pressure on oil prices.
Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) received net buying of HK$207 million. A Guosheng Securities research report indicated that retail prices for optical fibers and cables have been rising since late 2025. According to data from the Excitingn Network, the price for G.652.D bare fiber exceeded 30 yuan per core kilometer by February 2026, with actual transaction prices mostly concentrated between 40-50 yuan, and some channel prices even surpassing 50 yuan per core kilometer, representing a cumulative increase of 94% to 144%. The report suggests the optical fiber and cable industry has entered a high-growth cycle, with leading manufacturers possessing integrated fiber preform and cable production capabilities, significant capacity flexibility, and international expansion potential positioned to benefit substantially.
COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138) attracted net inflows of HK$203 million. This follows the sudden escalation of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. A Goldman Sachs report highlighted that the tanker sector and COSCO Shipping Energy hold the most significant upside potential among its covered transportation stocks. In an extreme scenario where Iranian oil sanctions are fully lifted, approximately 5% of shipping demand could shift from the "shadow fleet" to compliant vessels, potentially increasing Time Charter Equivalents (TCE) for various crude tankers by about $30,000 per day.
Additionally, TENCENT (00700) saw net buying of HK$782 million. In contrast, Alibaba-W (09988) and SMIC (00981) experienced net sell-offs of HK$1.389 billion and HK$154 million, respectively.
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