According to a disclosure on October 27, the Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed Securities Investment Fund managed by Liu Yancun released its third-quarter report.
During the reporting period, its position in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (300750.SZ) increased by 20%, while baijiu stocks were reduced, with Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. (600809.SH) seeing the largest cut of 25%.
Liu Yancun believes that amid the current coexistence of an AI investment boom and weak domestic demand, what determines an asset's long-term return is not short-term industry prosperity itself, but the purchase price and the company's ability to continue creating value for shareholders in the future.
During the reporting period, the fund's Class A shares posted a net value growth rate of 4.72%, against a benchmark return of -17.37%; Class C shares recorded a net value growth rate of 4.57%, also against a benchmark return of -17.37%.
As of the end of the third quarter, the fund's top ten holdings were: WuXi AppTec (603259.SH), Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), Midea Group (000333.SZ), Haid Group (002311.SZ), M&G Stationery (603899.SH), Hikvision (002415.SZ), CATL (300750.SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), Gujing Distillery (000596.SZ), and Yili Group (600887.SH).
WuXi AppTec, Kweichow Moutai, and Midea Group remained the fund's top three heavy holdings, with market values of 1.088 billion yuan, 1.079 billion yuan, and 1.041 billion yuan, respectively.
Compared with the previous quarter, CATL was increased by 243,100 shares, a 20.14% addition, bringing its holding market value to 422 million yuan.
On the reduction side, baijiu positions declined noticeably, with Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Distillery, and Kweichow Moutai reduced by 25.00%, 3.47%, and 1.47%, respectively; in addition, Hikvision and Haid Group had their positions cut by 20.00% and 8.67%, respectively.
In the third quarter, the domestic economy continued to show the characteristics of "strong production and exports, weak domestic demand." Exports remained an important driver of economic growth at this stage, with high-tech products such as semiconductors and automobiles performing particularly strongly in exports. At the same time, domestic consumption showed no obvious improvement, with services consumption relatively better while goods consumption growth remained sluggish.
In the stock market, third-quarter industry performance diverged noticeably from fundamental prosperity, and the market experienced a sharp style reversal and valuation rebalancing. Capital continued to withdraw from AI-related sectors that had previously risen sharply and had high trading congestion, shifting instead toward value-oriented sectors that had long been under pressure with relatively low valuations. The market's pricing logic also gradually shifted from chasing long-term high growth to re-emphasizing valuation safety margins and real cash flows.
Liu Yancun said China still has relatively ample policy space and industrial foundations, and the current lack of domestic demand will eventually be repaired through policy optimization, corporate self-adjustment, and market clearing, though this process will take time. Developing high-tech industries and relying on overseas demand to drive the economy can help improve corporate profits and gradually repair the balance sheets of households, businesses, and local governments. But this process may be longer than the market expects. The technology industry is highly capital- and technology-intensive, with relatively limited direct spillover effects on employment, household income, and mass consumption. Relying solely on technology industry upgrading and overseas demand, a full recovery in domestic demand will still take a long time.
Overseas, the recent sharp rise in US long-term Treasury yields may gradually become an endogenous constraint on the AI capital expenditure boom. Among them, AI projects with high leverage, reliance on external financing, and long cash flow recovery cycles may be affected first. AI investment has been one of the important drivers of US capital expenditure and economic growth in recent years, but traditional rate hikes may have limited restraint on AI capital expenditure; the first to suffer instead are housing, traditional investment, and ordinary consumption. At the same time, AI is an industry that the US government focuses on supporting, so there is an obvious policy contradiction. Meanwhile, the AI industry itself remains in a stage of fierce competition, and the competitive landscape among models is far from stable. Against the backdrop of intensifying price competition, rapid growth in industry demand does not necessarily equate to long-term rapid growth in industry chain profits. Whether the current high prosperity in some segments can continue ultimately depends on real profitability, return on capital, and the industry competitive landscape, and cannot be simply extrapolated linearly based on short-term capital expenditure growth.
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