Title
Earning Preview: nLIGHT Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 64.55%, and institutional views are bullish
Abstract
nLIGHT will report fourth-quarter results on February 26, 2026, Post Market, with the company guiding above its revenue range and analysts broadly constructive on near-term performance and capital deployment.
Market Forecast
Consensus points to fourth-quarter revenue of 76.71 million US dollars, an adjusted EPS of 0.11, and EBIT of -2.99 million US dollars; the year-over-year growth rates implied are 64.55% for revenue, 155.70% for EPS, and an 83.37% improvement for EBIT. Management’s January 13, 2026 preliminary update indicated revenue of 78.00–80.00 million US dollars, above the high end of prior guidance, largely supported by Aerospace & Defense demand.
The main business is expected to benefit from stable order flow and mix improvements that support margin resilience, while operating efficiency gains may temper the impact of higher costs. The Aerospace & Defense segment appears to be the strongest near-term driver; the company highlighted that fourth-quarter upside was primarily attributable to this area, indicating robust year-over-year expansion in that segment.
Last Quarter Review
The previous quarter delivered revenue of 66.74 million US dollars with a gross profit margin of 31.09%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -6.87 million US dollars, a net profit margin of -10.30%, and adjusted EPS of 0.08; revenue rose 18.91% year over year and adjusted EPS increased 200.00% year over year.
A key financial highlight was the strong EPS performance versus expectations, which came alongside improved operating leverage despite a negative EBIT. Main business activity remained anchored by the Products segment at 47.61 million US dollars (71.33% of revenue) and the Development segment at 19.13 million US dollars (28.67% of revenue), with total revenue growing 18.91% year over year.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Core Operating Performance
Revenue guidance and consensus both indicate a substantial acceleration, supported by management’s preliminary fourth-quarter update of 78.00–80.00 million US dollars and market estimates at 76.71 million US dollars. The implied year-over-year growth of 64.55% is consistent with the January 13, 2026 communication that upside was driven predominantly by programs linked to high-energy applications, which tend to be revenue-dense and less seasonal. While the EBIT estimate remains negative at -2.99 million US dollars, the expected 83.37% year-over-year improvement reflects a smaller operating loss and suggests that cost absorption on higher revenues could narrow the gap to break-even. The adjusted EPS expectation of 0.11, up 155.70% year over year, underscores leverage in the P&L when volumes and product mix skew toward higher-value shipments. In the absence of explicit margin guidance for the quarter, historical gross margin of 31.09% and net margin of -10.30% offer a reference point; with stronger revenue mix and improved scale, investors will be watching whether gross margins can trend up sequentially while overhead efficiency offsets the remaining EBIT shortfall.
Aerospace & Defense Programs
Management’s January 13, 2026 preliminary update specifically attributed fourth-quarter upside to the Aerospace & Defense market, signaling that this program set is the primary growth catalyst in the near term. Order timing and delivery schedules in this area can introduce lumpiness, but the magnitude of the pre-announcement suggests meaningful progress on major contracts and milestones. The subsequent January 28, 2026 expansion of Longmont, Colorado facilities by an additional 50,000 square feet positions the company to support beam-combined high-energy laser production at a larger scale, increasing capacity to meet demand and reduce lead times. The capacity expansion is complementary to the revenue trajectory indicated by guidance and consensus; it also strengthens the ability to execute larger backlog items and accommodate project-specific ramp requirements without compromising quality. Given the positive directional commentary, Aerospace & Defense is the most promising segment in the current period, with management indicating that total fourth-quarter revenue will be above guidance on the back of this segment; investors will focus on the extent to which that contribution translates into improved gross margin via higher mix and the sustainability of this revenue level into subsequent quarters.
Key Stock Price Drivers
The February 4, 2026 common stock offering of approximately 4 million shares at 44.00 US dollars for roughly 175.00 million US dollars in gross proceeds is a central stock driver for the quarter, improving liquidity and funding capacity for manufacturing expansion and program execution. While equity raises can introduce near-term dilution concerns, the use of proceeds alongside the January 28, 2026 facility expansion signals management’s intent to scale strategically for anticipated demand. Investors will weigh the near-term EPS optics against the operational upside of capacity additions and potential backlog conversion. Another catalyst is guidance credibility, as the company’s January 13, 2026 pre-announcement set expectations for revenue outperformance; a reported result near 78.00–80.00 million US dollars would validate the demand narrative and underpin optimism on margin trajectory. A final driver is mix and operating leverage: with consensus pointing to a significantly improved EBIT year over year, the degree of overhead absorption and any commentary on supply chain or cost normalization will be parsed closely for implications on the timing of a sustained return to profitability.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish views dominate by 2:0, with Needham and Cantor Fitzgerald reiterating Buy ratings in early February 2026. Needham’s James Ricchiuti maintained a Buy with a 48.00 US dollars price target, indicating confidence in execution against fourth-quarter revenue guidance and the alignment of capacity investment with near-term demand. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Troy Jensen reaffirmed a Buy with a 40.00 US dollars target, highlighting the strategic logic of the equity raise and the attractive positioning of high-energy programs in the revenue mix during the quarter. These viewpoints emphasize that the preliminary revenue beat on January 13, 2026 supports an above-consensus trajectory into the print and that the January 28, 2026 capacity expansion is a timely move to enable production scaling and backlog execution. Across these analyses, the common thread is that fourth-quarter performance should reflect the strongest period of the fiscal year, with revenue strength dampening operating losses and adjusted EPS benefitting from leverage; a reported result near the pre-announced range would substantiate this stance. The focus is on demand visibility from program deliveries, improvement in EBIT relative to the prior year, and the extent to which capital raised on February 4, 2026 accelerates operational readiness for subsequent quarters. In sum, the majority analyst perspective expects fourth-quarter revenue and EPS to positively surprise versus earlier expectations, while acknowledging that near-term profitability is still balancing scale-up costs and mix dynamics that should improve with continued execution.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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