According to a report from Comerica Bank's Bill Adams, from the Federal Reserve's perspective, the U.S. economy maintains solid growth momentum, yet inflation remains elevated. The chief economist stated that in this environment, the Fed is expected to keep short-term interest rates stable until Chairman Jerome Powell's term concludes in May. He indicated that economic growth in 2026 will benefit from favorable factors including lower interest rates, increased government spending, the Fed's interest rate cuts from the previous year, and improvements in the housing market. He added that further support is anticipated from the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom and refunds from countervailing tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court's ruling last week. "The most significant downside risk to growth stems from labor supply constraints, which could exacerbate an inflation rebound," he said.
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