BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, anticipates that the global potassium fertilizer market will become increasingly tight over the next decade, driven by rising demand and geopolitical pressures affecting the fertilizer supply chain. Demand for this essential crop nutrient is growing by 2–3% annually, while new supply remains limited beyond BHP's Jansen potash project. The situation has been intensified by supply disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East, prompting farmers worldwide to compete for vital nutrients. According to Karina Gistelinck, the company's head of potash operations, a market deficit is expected by 2035. She stated in a Tuesday interview that the market is projected to face significant supply-side pressure. The Jansen project, located in Saskatchewan, Canada, is scheduled to begin production by mid-2027, with an annual capacity of 4.1 million tons expected within two years. A second phase is projected to increase output to approximately 8.5 million tons early in the following decade. Gistelinck is currently working to convert preliminary commercial agreements into binding contracts in Brazil ahead of Jansen’s launch. Brazil, which relies almost entirely on imported potash and accounts for roughly 20% of global demand, is expected to be a key market. BHP has also identified Southeast Asia, China, India, and the United States as major target markets. The company's executive noted that BHP learned difficult lessons as costs for the Jansen potash project's first phase far exceeded expectations, with estimated investment now reaching $8.4 billion. She likened potash to BHP’s "iron ore of the future," signaling the company’s ambition to build a significant new profit engine.
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